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Don't Be Fooled By Stock Market Noise

  
  Education
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  • The volume of market and economic information is increasing exponentially, but the amount of useful information certainly isn’t.
  • Most of it is just noise, and the noise is increasing faster than the signal; hence, the higher the noise-to-signal ratio.
  • The “signal” is the truth and needs to be taken seriously; the “noise” is what distracts us from the truth and needs to be ignored.
  • This is why the higher the noise-to-signal ratio, the more difficult it becomes to make intelligent investment decisions.
  • Investors must use “filters” to separate the signal from the noise – this will improve their decision-making and investment performance.
 

 

Feedback in Real Life

  
  Education
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FEEDBACKIf market or individual stock a has a positive predictive correlation with market b, and b had a positive predictive correlation with market a, then there is positive feedback, and an explosive growth when a is up would occur. Similarly, if there is a positive predictive correlation, i.e. the serial correlation of a with b say one day forward is 0.2, then market a goes down. If there is a negative predictive correlation of market a with market b, then when a goes up, b will tend to go down, and vice versa, and there will be a stable equilibrium between the two with each pulling the other in opposite directions.

The situation is very similar to what occurs in all feedback circuits in electronics, including what you seen in any kind of amplifiers where there is negative feedback to maintain stability.

What are the markets that have positive predictive correlation with each other, i.e. when a is up today, b tends to go up tomorrow, and when b is up today, a tends to go up tomorrow? There aren’t many. And when such occurs, it is only for a limited time. So you have to be on your toes if you wish to use positive feedback. All this can be quantified with varying degrees of reality and rigor.

In 1983, Steve Jobs Hosted Apple's Version Of 'The Dating Game' And Bill Gates Was A Contestant

  
Education, Video
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The year was 1983, and 28-year-old Steve Jobs was hosting an Apple event for his employees.

Jobs invited three software guys: Frank Gibbons of Software Publishing Co., Mitch Kapor of Lotus, and none other than Bill Gates of Microsoft.

All of the men are in their geek-chic uniform of khakis and polo shirts (the hoodies of yesteryear), to answer questions about their company’s relationship with Apple, all in the style of “The Dating Game”.

In the video below, you’ll hear only Gates’ answers, but those, of course, are the most interesting. The two seem almost chummy, and the crowd is completely entertained.

Jobs and Gates didn’t meet onstage again for almost 25 years after this event.

You’ll see that Bill Gates is really trying win that “date” in this game, but who does Jobs pick in the end? Watch and find out.

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