The bond market has gone haywire today and with the VIX at 50, the market is begging for more help from the Fed.

Still, US stocks are only down 9% year-to-date so maybe the Fed will want to save some ammunition? We will see on March 18.

The final Fed comments before the blackout came from Rosengren, who was talking about more Fed asset and securities purchases beyond government-backed securities. So if we’re already talking about beyond the zero bound, maybe we will be there before long.

The Fed funds futures market is now pricing in 50 basis points of easing on March 18 and a 51% chance of a 75 bps cut. The 10-year inverted below T-bills today and well below Fed funds so it’s certainly on the table. That would leave rates at 0.25-0.50% and leave the Fed with only one traditional cut and that’s 65% priced in for Sept.