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Warren Buffett makes a big bet on gold

  
  Analysis
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Buffett bought a stake in miner Barrick Gold

Barrick Gold Warren Buffett
Warren Buffett has famously disparaged gold but evidently he’s had a change of heart.
According to a Q2 13F filed today, The Oracle of Omaha added 20.9 million shares of Barrick Gold, which is the world’s second largest gold miner. He paid $563.5 million for the stake, which equates to $26.95 per share and his Berkshire Hathaway owns 1.2% of the company. It was the only new company he bought in the second quarter.
The shares closed at $26.99 on Friday but jumped about $1.00 in after hours trading.
Warren Buffett
This could indicate a massive change of heart from the world’s most famous investor, or one of his deputies.
His most-famous musing on gold was from back in 1998:
“(Gold) gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.”
As recently as 2018 he repeated his misgivings about gold.
“The magical metal was no match for the American mettle,” he wrote in his annual letter while comparing the returns of both since he first invested in stocks in 1944.
Now this doesn’t necessarily mean he has a new view on gold. Barrick’s cash flows with gold steady at these levels are compelling (and other miners are even more compelling).  Still, expect much more interest in the space now that Warren Buffett has given it his blessing.
Other highlights from his Q2 13F:
  • Exited Occidental Petroleum, but added to Suncor Energy
  • Cut JPMorgan stake by 62%
  • Cut Mastercard stake by 7%
  • Aside from SU, only added to STOR and KR
  • Reduced WFC, SIRI, PNC, MTB, BK
  • Exited DAL, LUV, UAL, AAL, QSR, GS, OXY
In terms of the ones he reduced. In general Buffett doesn’t sell shares unless he plans to sell out. However at times he has to sell to stay below ownership limits.
Overall, his investment mix doesn’t exactly show confidence in the economic or stock market recovery.

Peter Lynch’s Rules

  
Analysis, Education
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Find your edge and put it to work by adhering to the following rules:

  • With every stock you own, keep track of its story in a logbook. Note any new developments and pay close attention to earnings. Is this a growth play, a cyclical play, or a value play? Stocks do well for a reason and do poorly for a reason. Make sure you know the reasons.
  • Pay attention to facts, not forecasts.
  • Ask yourself: What will I make if I’m right, and what could I lose if I’m wrong? Look for a risk-reward ratio of three to one or better.
  • Before you invest, check the balance sheet to see if the company is financially sound.
  • Don’t buy options, and don’t invest on margin. With options, time works against you, and if you’re on margin, a drop in the market can wipe you out.
  • When several insiders are buying the company’s stock at the same time, it’s a positive.
  • Average investors should be able to monitor five to ten companies at a time, but nobody is forcing you to own any of them. If you like seven, buy seven. If you like three, buy three. If you like zero, buy zero.
  • Be patient. The stocks that have been most rewarding to me have made their greatest gains in the third or fourth year I owned them. A few took ten years.
  • Enter early — but not too early. I often think of investing in growth companies in terms of baseball. Try to join the game in the third inning, because a company has proved itself by then. If you buy before the lineup is announced, you’re taking an unnecessary risk. There’s plenty of time (10 to 15 years in some cases) between the third and the seventh innings, which is where the 10- to 50-baggers are made. If you buy in the late innings, you may be too late.
  • Don’t buy “cheap” stocks just because they’re cheap. Buy them because the fundamentals are improving.
  • Buy small companies after they’ve had a chance to prove they can make a profit.
  • Long shots usually backfire or become “no shots.”
  • If you buy a stock for the dividend, make sure the company can comfortably afford to pay the dividend out of its earnings, even in an economic slump.
  • Investigate ten companies and you’re likely to find one with bright prospects that aren’t reflected in the price. Investigate 50 and you’re likely to find 5.

Definition of Financial Journalist ,Restructuring ,Auditor

  
  Education
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FINANCIAL JOURNALIST, n. Someone with deep and broad expertise in moving words around on a page or screen until they sound impressive regardless of whether they mean anything.
RESTRUCTURING, n.  The process by which a company that, only a few years before, had eagerly diversified into other businesses un-diversifies even more eagerly right back out of them. ANALYSTs and investors, who had earlier hailed the expansion as essential for growth, will now applaud the contraction as essential for survival.  The company’s management will earn big bonuses for adding to “SHAREHOLDER VALUE.”  A few thousand employees will lose their jobs, but that strikes the other participants as a small price to pay for restoring the company to its former state of health.

AUDITOR, n.  An accountant who all too often may approve a company’s financial statements exactly as the company’s management wishes them to be presented.

“It’s our job as auditors to do whatever we can ensure that a company’s financial statements conform with GAAP, but not to function as policemen or fraud detectors,” said Seymour Billings, a partner in the Chicago office of the accounting firm of Tinker Hyde Alter & Berry.
The word auditor, in Latin, means “one who hears.” In English, evidently, it means one who also obeys.

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