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Japan Unemployment rate for December: 2.2% (expected 2.3%)

  
  Analysis
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The Tokyo area CPI is out at the same time, on a separate post

Japan Jobless rate for December 2.2%

  • expected 2.3%, prior 2.2%

Job to applicant ratio for December 1.57

  • expected 1.57, prior 1.57
Japan economy … 99 problems but unemployment ain’t one.

Economic data coming up in the European session

  
  Analysis
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UK December CPI data in focus today

Good day, everyone! Hope you’re all doing well as we look to get things going in the session ahead. Markets are keeping more calm after a minor hiccup yesterday over tariff headlines but the main focus remains on the US-China trade deal signing later today.

Major currencies remain little changed thus far as the more steady tones are giving little direction for traders to work with in general. Looking ahead, we’ll have a couple of data points to move things along with the big one being UK inflation data.

0745 GMT – France December final CPI figures
The preliminary release can be found here. As this is the final release, it shouldn’t have much of an impact as it should reaffirm a slight rebound in price pressures last month.
0800 GMT – Spain December final CPI figures
The preliminary release can be found here. Similar to the French release, it should just reaffirm a slight rebound in inflation across the region last month.
0930 GMT – UK December CPI figures
0930 GMT – UK December PPI figures
Prior release can be found here. Price pressures in the UK is expected to keep more steady last month, but still below the desired 2% level. I reckon barring any significant drop-off in inflation, the BOE could lean towards staying pat in January but markets may still allude to this as being a reason to cut as well. In my view, post-election data matters more for the BOE so more steady price pressures (for now) should keep the finger off the trigger.
1000 GMT – Eurozone November industrial production
Prior release can be found here. The bounce in German industrial production for November should help give a slight nudge higher in the release here today but overall factory activity remains rather subdued in the euro area towards the end of 2019. A minor data point.
1000 GMT – Eurozone November trade balance data
Prior release can be found here. A general indication of trade conditions in the euro area economy, which is still a bit shaky in general amid slower global activity.
1200 GMT – US MBA mortgage approvals w.e. 10 January
Weekly US housing data, measures the change in number of applications for mortgages backed by the MBA during the week. Not the biggest of data points, but a general indicator of the housing sector sentiment.
That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading!

Japan headline inflation data for October misses, core-core beats

  
Analysis, Economy
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The headlines National CPI comes in at 0.2% y/y, a “miss” on estimates.

  • expected 0.3%, prior was 0.2%
National CPI y/y excluding Fresh Food is 04% y/y
  • expected 0.4%, prior was 0.3%
National CPI excluding Food, Energy is 0.7% y/y a “beat” on estimates
  • expected 0.6 %, prior was 0.5%
I generally do not like describing CPI data in terms of misses and beats but made an ex[pcetion today.
The ‘core-core’ referred to is CPI excluding Food & Energy, this is the closest measure to what is termed ‘core’ CPI in the US. As you can see, slightly above the median consensus. While well short of the 2% BOJ target, a tiny bit of good news for the Bank.
Yen doing pretty much nothing on the data release. As is usual.

Japan – National CPI for March: 1.6% y/y (vs. 1.6% expected) & the rest of this data

  
Analysis, Education
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Japan inflation data:

National CPI y/y for March,  1.6%

  • expected 1.6%, prior was 1.5%

National CPI y/y excluding Fresh Food for March,  1.3%

  • expected 1.4%, prior was 1.3%

National CPI excluding Food, Energy y/y for March,  0.7%

  • expected 0.7%, prior was 0.8%

Tokyo CPI y/y for April,  2.9%

  • expected 3.0%, prior was 1.3% (Note: the ‘expected’ is much higher than the prior due to the introduction of the higher sales tax rate on April 1 …. note we get Tokyo inflation figures for April, with national figures are for March)

Tokyo CPI excluding Fresh Food y/y for April,  2.7% (this is a 22-year high … but, of course, skewed by the sales tax hike)

  • expected 2.8%, prior was 1.0% (ditto) (more…)
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