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Trading Madness

Psychological BiasEffect on Investment BehaviorConsequence
OverconfidenceTrade too much.  Take too much risk and fail to diversifyPay too much in commissions and taxes.  Susceptible to big losses
AttachmentBecome emotionally attached to a security and see it through rose-colored glassesSusceptible to big losses
EndowmentWant to keep the securities receivedNot achieving a match between your investment goals and your investments
Status QuoHold back on changing your portfolioFailure to adjust asset allocation and begin contributing to retirement plan
Seeking PrideSell winners too soonLower return and higher taxes
Avoiding RegretHold losers too longLower return and higher taxes
House MoneyTake too much risk after winningSusceptible to big losses
Snake BitTake too little risk after losingLose chance for higher return in the long term
Get EvenTake too much risk trying to get break evenSusceptible to big losses
Social ValidationFeel that it must be good if others are investing in the securityParticipate in price bubble which ultimately causes you to buy high and sell low
Mental AccountingFail to diversifyNot receiving the highest return possible for the level of risk taken
Cognitive DissonanceIgnore information that conflicts with prior beliefs and decisionsReduces your ability to evaluate and monitor your investment choices
RepresentativenessThink things that seem similar must be alike.  So a good company must be a good investmentPurchase overpriced stocks
FamiliarityThink companies that you know seem better and saferFailure to diversify and put too much faith in the company in which you work
   

Portuguese Bank Borrowings From ECB More Than Double In May, Hit All Time Record of €35.8 Billion

Alas, the deteriorating funding environment in Portugal is not a fluke – according to the Bank of Portugal, bank borrowings from the ECB surged in the past month, and doubled from €17.7 billion to €35.8 billion in May. As Steven Major from HSBC said, quoted by the FT: “These yields are approaching that magic number of 5 per cent that is likely to be charged by the European stability fund. If the yields keep going up at this rate, then they will be paying much more than 5 per cent next month, which is arguably unsustainable.” And confirming the non rose-colored glasses reality was another banker who said: “These yields are not sustainable. Portugal will have to access the emergency stability fund if they continue to rise at this rate.” Elsewhere, Greece continue to be bankrupt.

The chart below shows total borrowings from the ECB by Portuguese banks…

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