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NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB AND THE BED OF PROCRUSTES- Quotes

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the former trader and well known author of The Black Swan and Fooled By Randomness, has put together a new book of aphorisms, entitled The Bed of Procrustes.  The Procrustes of Greek mythology was a cruel fellow who stretched or shortened people to make them fit his inflexible bed. Mr. Taleb’s new book addresses the modern day ways in which “we humans, facing limits of knowledge, and things we do not observe, the unseen and the unknown, resolve the tension by squeezing life and the world into crisp commoditized ideas, reductive categories, specific vocabularies, and prepackaged narratives, which, on the occasion, has explosive consequences.”  In other words, we live under self-imposed delusions.  Here are a few of the aphorisms that expose our delusionary thinking, many of which can be applied to trading.  But, in order to understand their application, we must first step out of our delusional state.

The stock market, in brief: participants are calmly waiting in line to be slaughtered while thinking it is for a Broadway show.
You are rich if and only if money you refuse tastes better than money you accept.
The best test of whether someone is extremely stupid (or extremely wise) is whether financial and political news makes sense to him.
You can be certain that the head of a corporation has a lot to worry about when he announces publicly that “there is nothing to worry about.”
The main difference between government bailouts and smoking is that in some rare cases the statement “this is my last cigarette” holds true. (more…)

The Agoraphobic Trader

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agoraphobia

The market is risky.  There is nothing about it that isn’t risky.  Risk never changes, your understanding and ability to make decisions based on what you are likely to achieve does change.  

One of the most important things about risk is liquidity. Agoraphobia is a “Panic disorder with agoraphobia is an anxiety disorder in which a person has attacks of intense fear and anxiety. There is also a fear of being in places where it is hard to escape, or where help might not be available.” –A.D.A.M Medical Encyclopedia

This plays out in two ways:

  • Physical limitations: The ability to get out of a position because there are ample orders on the other side of your trade.   We have seen many positions get too big to win.  Amaranth Nat Gas trade, CDS, and most recently the London Whale Trade.  For most of us we will never have the ability to get into a position that size but if you trade penny stocks you might find yourself in trouble and with some serious momentum trades.
  • Mental limitations:  As it is often said “second trade first”, meaning have your exit in mind before you get into a position. We have all been there before.  Not getting out of a trade where we should have.  Now we are down money or gave back open profits.  We are essentially trapped.  The trade begins to own us.  We have created an extra branch on the decision tree that does not need to be there.  

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Benefits of Mindfulness in Trading

Mindfulness in trading can be of significant benefit to traders.  Mindful trading will positively impact traders and their trading in a number of ways:

  • Reduce loss aversion
  • Mitigate the disposition effect (i.e., cutting winning trades short and letting losing trades run)
  • Help traders get into “the zone”
  • Reduce the negative effects of cognitive biases and heuristics on trading decisions
  • Directly reduce stress
  • Help traders see the market more clearly
  • Increase awareness of the trader’s internal state and how it impacts their trading
  • Increased ability to maintain focus on the market and the trading task at hand while trading, even when emotions are running hot
  • Increase internal emotional regulation
  • Other positive effects on trading and trading behavior

The Development of Mindfulness Skills Helps the Trader

  • Reduce stress
  • Tame the fear response
  • Counter the strong tendency toward loss aversion
  • Strengthen decision making
  • Strengthen internal emotional regulation
  • Improve and develop emotional intelligence
  • Reduce the dominance of intuitive decision making and cognitive error
  • Increase deliberative attention
  • Better see the market and its trading opportunities
  • Stay on task
  • Overcome the negative‐reinforcing properties of ineffective trading
  • Enhance overall psychological well‐being.
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