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Is there still a possibility of a no-deal Brexit at this stage?

  
  Analysis
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What if I told you that a no-deal Brexit now hinges on Boris Johnson winning the parliamentary vote tomorrow?

Boris Johnson
Before we get into the thick of things, let us set out what exactly is at stake tomorrow. Clearly, Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal motion is the main event but what does it mean really?

If lawmakers do vote to pass the motion, it means that they have technically voted in favour of a Brexit deal but there is still the issue of ratification and getting Johnson’s deal through the necessary legislative hoops – that includes voting on the withdrawal agreement.
The issue with all of this is related to the Benn Act. Now, the Benn Act requires Johnson to request an extension if Johnson cannot get parliament to agree on a Brexit deal. Hence, if the deal is rejected tomorrow, then there is no issue.
However, if the deal is approved, this is where things may yet get a little tricky.
In such an event, Johnson isn’t compelled to seek an extension and if there are hurdles he cannot overcome in getting his deal to be ratified and implemented, he could just let things run its course and we get towards a no-deal Brexit after 31 October.
Logically, you would think that he would seek a technical extension to get a deal through but possibly and certainly are two different words with very distinct connotations.
He could possibly seek an extension to work out any potential legislative issues and buy enough time to get his deal over the line legally but it doesn’t mean that he will certainly do so.

Is there any way to avoid this altogether?

This is where the vote on the Letwin amendment tomorrow may be rather consequential.
The Letwin amendment sets out that the government is to request an extension of the Brexit deadline, if a deal is passed, up until all the necessary legislative hurdles are overcome to officially put such a deal into place.
In essence, it is an added insurance in case Johnson has other plans up his sleeve.
This means that even if Johnson’s vote passes tomorrow but fails to get through any potential legislative complications by 31 October, he will still be compelled to request for an extension to the Brexit deadline.
While the drama involved in all of this is certainly captivating, it must be said that if we do see Johnson’s deal being passed tomorrow, it is pretty much a given that it should make it through all the significant legislative hurdles and be ratified in due time.
The timeline may now say it should be done by 31 October (two weeks) and that certainly could be plausible if lawmakers decide to work overtime.
That said, even if that isn’t enough time, a technical extension just to get the deal implemented is almost surely the most likely outcome – barring any unforeseen circumstances.

Labour’s Corbyn: Johnson’s deal is worse than May’s

  
Analysis, Economy
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Comments by Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn

Corbyn
  • Best way to sort Brexit is to have a second referendum
  • Johnson’s “sell out” deal should be rejected
Earlier in the day, it is said that Labour lawmakers have been whipped to vote for a second referendum on Saturday. If that is the case, it means that Johnson will find any further support for his deal to be lacking.

UK Times says Corbyn preparing to support a 2nd referendum on possible new Brexit deal

  
  Analysis
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UK Labour Party leader Corbyn

  • Said to be getting set to put any deal deal to a second referendum
  • is understood to support backing an amendment to a new vote on a withdrawal agreement that the prime minister hopes to put before parliament on Saturday
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UK house of Commons is set to sit on Saturday in the hope of getting a deal approved
  • if that vote passes, the prime minister will still need to pass legislation to implement the agreement through both houses of parliament by the October 31 deadli

UK PM Johnson speech extracts – wants to get Brexit done and ‘move on’

  
Analysis, Politics
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BJ is giving a speech Wednesday UK time to the Conservatives’ annual conference
  • says UK will leave on October 31 with or without a deal
  • will say his offer is his final Brexit offer to the European Union
  • if not acceptable to the EU the UK will not negotiate further
  • says his plan is a  “fair and reasonable compromise”.
“Let’s get Brexit done on October 31 so in 2020 our country can move on.”
Note:
  • UK parliament has passed a law that requires the PM to request a Brexit delay if he fails to secure an acceptable deal at an EU summit on October 17.
  • The EU wants “legal and operational” proposals for the changes Johnson wants to a deal his predecessor Theresa May negotiated with the bloc last year
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