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Dangers detailed for banks in Europe

Despite recent improvements in the health of European banks, they remain vulnerable to a daunting array of hazards that are expected to produce another round of sizable write-offs in the next couple of years, the European Central Bank said.

Its report cataloged in detail the problems facing the region’s financial institutions.

The challenges for banks in the 16-nation euro zone include exposure to a weakening commercial real estate market, hundreds of billions of euros in bad debts, economic problems in East European countries, and a potential collision between the banks’ own substantial refinancing needs and government demand for additional loans, the central bank said.

In its twice-yearly review of risks facing the nations that use the euro currency, the central bank expressed particular concern about banks’ need to refinance long-term debt of an estimated 800 billion euros, or $984 billion, by the end of 2012.

European banks will need to set aside an estimated 123 billion euros in 2010 for bad loans, and an additional 105 billion euros in 2011, the report said. That would be in addition to the 238 billion euros they set aside from 2007 to 2009.

Bunting’s Laws of Investing

1. Sell stocks of companies that announce huge acquisitions, that overdiversify, or that spend a fortune on a lavish new headquarters.

2. Avoid stocks where management picks fights with analysts (or, by extension, hedge funds). See Overstock.com in 2005; Netflix in 2010.

3. Watch out when executives start selling a lot of stock — regardless of plausible-sounding excuses. Top execs in homebuilders, mortgage underwriters and Wall Street dumped billions before the 2008 crash.

4. “Run a mile” from all stocks in an industry going through a huge investment boom: Massive overcapacity and consequent collapse is inevitable.

5. Steer clear of investing in manufacturing companies. Their industries are usually plagued with extreme cycles of boom and bust, overcapacity and slumps.

6. Pay little attention to economists or market gurus.

7. Mistrust all mathematical trading formulas as well — they invariably fail just when you most need them to work.

8. Look for companies where the insiders are buying lots of stock.

9. Look for companies generating a lot of cash — a great sign of sustained outperformance.

10. Look for companies which have monopolies (or near monopolies), and those which manage to take out their main competitors.

11. Remember you are buying businesses, not just stocks. Pay close attention to the quality of the business, and especially the quality of the management.

12. Look for companies which have earned the trust of consumers, and which have very strong brand names.

Technical Analysis Fact and Fiction

“Technical analysis, I think, has a great deal that is right and a great deal that is mumbo jumbo…

“There is a great deal of hype attached to technical analysis by some technicians who claim that it predicts the future. Technical analysis tracks the past; it does not predict the future. You have to use your own intelligence to draw conclusions about what the past activity of some traders may say about the future activity of other traders.

“For me, technical analysis is like a thermometer. Fundamentalists who say they are not going to pay any attention to the charts are like a doctor who says he’s not going to take a patient’s temperature. But, of course, that would be sheer folly. If you are a responsible participant in the market, you always want to know where the market is — whether it is hot and excitable, or cold and stagnant. You want to know everything you can about the market to give you an edge. (more…)

Technical Analysis Fact and Fiction

“Technical analysis, I think, has a great deal that is right and a great deal that is mumbo jumbo…

“There is a great deal of hype attached to technical analysis by some technicians who claim that it predicts the future. Technical analysis tracks the past; it does not predict the future. You have to use your own intelligence to draw conclusions about what the past activity of some traders may say about the future activity of other traders.

“For me, technical analysis is like a thermometer. Fundamentalists who say they are not going to pay any attention to the charts are like a doctor who says he’s not going to take a patient’s temperature. But, of course, that would be sheer folly. If you are a responsible participant in the market, you always want to know where the market is — whether it is hot and excitable, or cold and stagnant. You want to know everything you can about the market to give you an edge.

“Technical analysis reflects the vote of the entire marketplace and, therefore, does pick up unusual behaviors. By definition, anything that creates a new chart pattern is something unusual. It is very important for me to study the details of price action to see if I can observe something about how everybody is voting. Studying the charts is absolutely crucial and alerts me to existing disequilibria and potential changes.”

– Bruce Kovner, Market Wizards (more…)

Trading Journals

The image to the left should be recognizable by most of us as the American alphabet. It is from these 26 letters that billions of people are able to communicate on a daily basis. We learn the alphabet early on with rhymes and rote memorization so that we may contribute to society through our interactions. We all progress at different speeds, but eventually we all get to the point where we can recognize all the letters in the alphabet. It is at that point that we build upon that foundation and begin to spell words like C-A-T and T-R-E-E. These words are then combined to form sentences which consist of several words. From those sentences we form paragraphs and so on until we are able to write and communicate with others through pattern recognition.

This ability of pattern recognition isn’t anything new or even earth shattering–it’s common sense. Just like the alphabet, which is in a pattern, we can discern the different patterns in lots of things. Take a look at the image below and you can recognize a pattern as well where there are higher highs and higher lows. Unlike the alphabet and some other patterns that have a beginning and an end, some patterns are continuous. Such would be the case for a chart that shows price action in a publicly traded company.

We could begin to see patterns in the line above and learn to predict or assume what has the higher probability of occurring next. As an example, looking at this pattern above we might safely assume that the odds are greater that the line will move lower from here as it has in the past. This does not necessarily mean that it will, but the odds are in the favor of such a move. It is this assumptive process that will serve not as an ends, but more of a means to and end. This pattern recognition assumes that the next move would be lower and thus helps us to proceed further. Information that we’ve gathered from the past can help us predict what the future may hold and this is the basic tenet of technical analysis.

Technical analysis can even be performed on your own trading account and patterns begin to emerge where you can recognize when your trading is “on” as your account grows and when the dollar amount pulls back you can assume that your trading is “off.” This ability to recognize the patterns as your account fluctuates in price is a decent beginning, but nowhere near the wealth of information that can be gleaned from your trading history.

Trading journals are one of the most underused indicators that every trader has at their disposal. Why is it that such a powerful indicator is underused? I’d venture a guess that a majority of traders don’t keep a trading journal because of the time it takes to keep one. I could be wrong, but over the years as I’ve mentored traders from all walks of life, time was the number one reason for failure. Second on the list was not knowing what a trading journal was so after reading this article, you now have no excuses as to why you don’t keep a trading journal.

Below is a list of what I’d recommend to have in a trading journal and, as with anything in life, you’ll get out of the journal what you put into it.

•Date
•Symbol
•Position
•Setup
•Current Market Conditions
•Expectations
•Price Target and Reason
•Stop Price and Reason
•Entry Time and Reason
•Exit Time and Reason
•Outcome Of Trade and Analysis

 

If you are able, ATTACH CHARTS TO ALL ENTRIES! Remember the pattern recognition? Something may not have stood out in the heat of the moment, but several weeks later you may see similar chart patterns to this one. It is at that time that you begin to find common threads and themes of your trading which will allow you to exploit those things you do well and avoid those things you do poorly.

The above should be easily done and would suffice for the most part. However, if you really want to excel at this then a comment section is where the real clarity comes from as you listen to yourself. Take a moment and run through questions like this to get a better understanding of what’s going of for you at that moment and document it. Here’s some examples of what you could ask yourself:

•Why did you allocate what you did to each trade?
•Why did you enter the trade?
•Did it meet all of your criteria?
•Why did you trail the stop where you did?
•Why did you exit when you did?
•How is your percentage reliability of trades over time?
•Does it fluctuate? If so, why?
•What do you think about each trade as you make it?
•Are you most nervous about your best trades?
•Does your gut tell you anything consistently?
•Which trades worked the best and worst?
•Were there any common elements of your trades?
•Are there blocks you notice that cloud your objectivity?
•Are you making the types of returns that were your goal in terms of risk/reward?
•Why or why not?
 
If you take the time to address questions like these then patterns will begin to emerge and you begin to understand yourself and your individual trading style. As I’ve said before, you need to treat trading as a business as doing so helps you control your emotions. It is impossible to not be emotional when trading but it is possible to control your emotions.
 
The last suggestion I would have is that you simply open up a blog and use that as your trading journal. There are several free services out there that allow you to create a blog and upload images, etc. The neatest thing about using a blog for your trading journal is the search function as each post or entry you make allows the use of tags or keywords. As an example, for every trade you make that is bullish, put the keyword bullish as a tag and later you’ll be able to search for that keyword. With a few clicks of the mouse you can see every entry that you ever made in your trading journal that has the tag bullish in it. Take a few moments and read through them and start recognizing patterns.
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