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Deteriorating US-China relationship in focus as New York begins the week

  
  Analysis
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It’s non-farm payrolls week

It's non-farm payrolls week
Friday’s jobs report is the highlight of the week but for today it’s all about the relationship between the world’s two largest economies.
The US has been floating the idea of reparations and took it a step further on Sunday in this bizarre exchange with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on ABC:

RADDATZ: Do you believe it was manmade or genetically modified?

POMPEO: Look, the best experts so far seem to think it was manmade. I have no reason to disbelieve that at this point.

RADDATZ: Your — your Office of the DNI says the consensus, the scientific consensus was not manmade or genetically modified.

POMPEO: That’s right. I — I — I agree with that. Yes. I’ve — I’ve seen their analysis. I’ve seen the summary that you saw that was released publicly. I have no reason to doubt that that is accurate at this point.

RADDATZ: OK, so just to be clear, you do not think it was manmade or genetically modified?

POMPEO: I’ve seen what the intelligence community has said. I have no reason to believe that they’ve got it wrong.

To be clear, you’re accusing China of a heinous crime against humanity and you can’t see to get your story straight?
That’s not going to go over well in China but the exact response this time is less important that the trajectory. If it wasn’t entirely clear before, we’re headed towards a decoupling between the US and China and potentially something worse.
Trump also went down that road but said it was a mistake and promised ‘a very strong report’ will be delivered ‘soon’.
“Personally I think [China] made a horrible mistake. They tried to cover it up. It’s really like [they were] trying to put out a fire. They couldn’t put out the fire,” Trump said.
He also threatened new tariffs if China can’t complete the Phase 1 deal.
“We’re going to have to see what’s going on [with the purchases] because of what happened,” said Trump. “They took advantage of our country. Now they have to buy and, if they don’t buy, we will terminate the deal. Very simple.”
S&P 500 futures are down 20 points after an 81-point fall on Friday.
In terms of the economic calendar, the lone potential market mover is factory orders at 1400 GMT.

Pres Trump: We will be doing a major, middle income tax cut

  
  Analysis
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Trump speaking on healthcare plan

  • signed order and price transparency in healthcare
  • order will force companies to compete
  • rule will compel hospitals to publish prices
  • consumer will have lots of choices regard to doctors hospital and price
  • insurance firms will need to show treatment costs
in addition to his healthcare comments, Pres. Trump has also said:
  • we will be doing a major, middle income tax cut
  • tax-cut will be subject to Republicans winning house

Pres. Trump: Tariffs that are set to go in place on Sunday against China are still on

  
Analysis, Politics
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Pres Trump says tariffs will go on as planned on Sunday.

Pres Trump says tariffs will go on as planned on Sunday.
Before departing the White House for the weekend told reporters,
  • He can’t say whether he will speak to Xi, but US is speaking to China
  • Tariffs set to go in place on Sunday against China are still on
  • “We are going to win the fight” with China
  • Trade meeting with China in September is still on, it has not been canceled
  • US is in incredible negotiating position with China because of tariffs it has placed on Chinese imports
  • He sees a connection between situation in Hong Kong and China trade talks
  • Chinese response in Hong Kong will be much more violent if were not for the trade talks
  • Repeats China wants to make a trade deal
On other topics:
  • Too soon to call for evacuation Florida.  Determination will likely be made on Sunday
  • Asked if he would like to see negative interest rates in the United States, says no.

The squeeze remains on.

Trump, China & the Fed

  
  Analysis
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I think it’s entirely possible we leave Osaka with a mild escalation -something like expanded 10% tariffs – enough to scare both China & the Fed into more stimulus & a 50bps cut. Then walk it back in 2020 with a juiced economy. Same playbook as Iran/SA

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