Twenty-four hours ago, the markets were looking forward to a corrective move higher after the FOMC put 75 basis points off the table going forward. However, the broader Nasdaq and S&P were closing right around the 100 hour MA. The technicals were not in “clear sailing” seas.

Today, the indices opened lower and some pretty poor productivity data (worst since 1947) turned the buyers into sellers and that selling did not abate for most of the day.

The Nasdaq traded to a new 2022 low. The S&P remains above its lowest low for the year but was down over -3.5%. The Dow lost 1000 points.

The final numbers are showing:

• Dow fell -1063.11 points or -3.12% at 32997.96
• S&P fell -153.30 points or -3.56% at 4146.86
• Nasdaq fell -647.15 points or -4.99% at 12317.70
• Russell 200 fell -78.77 points or -4.04% at 1871.14.

• S&P 500 up 122 points to 4298, or 2.9%
• Nasdaq +3.1%
• DJIA +2.8%
• Russell 2000 +2.6%
• TSX Composite +1.4%

The major US indices are closing higher for the 2nd consecutive day. Having said that, the gains were relatively modest as traders await the Fed decision tomorrow.

The final numbers are showing:

• Dow industrial average is up 67.27 points or 0.20% at 33128.78
• S&P is up 20.08 points or +0.48% at 4175.47
• Nasdaq is up 27.75 points or 0.22% at 12563.77
• Russell 2000 is up 15.94 points or 0.85% at 1898.85

MS on the S&P500, analysts think the index has downside to at least 3800 in the ‘near term’ and possible to 3460

• the 200 week moving average if forward 12 month EPS start to fall on margin and/or recession concerns

MS adds note the S&P 500 real earnings yield is the most negative since the 1950s and that to them this

• Suggests we have meaningful downside at the index level as investors figure this out

MS have been on the right side of the slide of the index so far.

The major US indices looked like they may start the month of May off the way they ended the month of April – with declines across the board. The Dow industrial average is down -1.6%. The S&P was down -1.69% and the NASDAQ was down -1.07% in the New York afternoon. However, buyers entered, and erased the declines and closed nearer the high levels of the day.

At the closing bell:

• Dow industrial average rose 84.29 points or 0.26% at 33061.49
• S&P index rose 23.47 points or 0.57% at 4155.39
•  NASDAQ  index rose 201.39 points or 1.63% at 12536.03
• Russell 2000 rose 18.81 points or 1.01% at 1882.91

The Federal Reserve will meet on Wednesday and are expected to increase rates by 50 basis points.

Since their last meeting decision on March 16:

• The DXY index is up 5.3%
• The 10 year yield is up 83 baais points
• The Nasdaq is down -6.65%
• The S&P is down -4.65%

That is some headwinds for the market, but inflation remains an unknown, housing continues have supply/demand imbalances (although getting better) and the Fed is behind the curve in getting rates to neutral (2% to 2.5%).

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The old adage is that stocks don’t bottom on Fridays. Of course, it’s also the final trading day of the month so that could have led to some special selling flows that could reverse on Monday as we begin May.

On the day:

• S&P 500 -3.6% worst single day since June 2020. Lowest close since May 2021
• Nasdaq -4.3%
• DJIA 2.8%
• Russell 2000 -2.9%
• Toronto TSX Comp -1.7%

Amazon was down 14% in its worst day since 2006.

On the week:

• S&P 500 -3.3%
• Nasdaq -3.9%
• DJIA -2.5%
• Russell 2000 -4.0%

On the month:

• S&P 500 -8.8% — worst monthly drop since March 2020
• Nasdaq -13.3% — largest monthly decline since 2008
• DJIA -4.9% — worst monthly drop since March 2020

On the year, the Nasdaq is now down 21.2%. With that as a monthly close, it’s a bear market in tech stocks.

Drawdowns in big-cap tech:

• AAPL 13.2%
• MSFT 18.7%
• GOOGL 23.6%
• TSLA 29.0%
• AMZN 34.1%
• NVDA 44.2%
• FB 47.4%
• NFLX 72.3%

Meta is out with the earnings and EPS beat expectations but revenues miss:

• earnings-per-share come in at $2.72 versus $2.56 estimate
• revenues at 27.91 billion versus 28.20 billion estimate
• Daily active users 1.96 billion versus 1.95 billion estimate
• Monthly users 2.94 billion versus 2.97 billion estimate
• sees a second quarter revenue guidance of $28 billion to $30 billion versus 30.63 billion estimate

Shares nevertheless are up 18% initially.

A day after the Dow industrial average felt -800 points and the NASDAQ index fell -500 points, the major indices are closing relatively little changed ahead of Meta and others earnings.

The final numbers are showing:

• Dow industrial average up 61.73 points or 0.19% at 33301.92
• S&P index up 8.7 points or 0.21% at 4183.91
• NASDAQ index down one .8 points or -0.01% at 12488.94
• Russell 2000 down -6.43 points or -0.34% at 1884.03