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Another up day for the major indices today

Stocks rally on hopes for US-Mexico potential deal

The US stocks rallied once again on the hopes that US/Mexico would either delay tariffs due to be enacted on Monday, or come to a deal that would avoid them altogether.
The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P index up 17.28 points or 0.61% at 2843.42. The high reached 2852.10
  • The Nasdaq rose 40.08 points or 0.53% at 7615.55. The high reached 7634.11
  • The Dow closed up 181.09 pointo0.71% at25720.66. THe Dow has had its longest winning streak since March.
For the Nasdaq, the index is back up testing the 100 day MA at 7630.708.  The high today did extend above that level but the index is closing below the level at 7615.55.

US stocks finish at the highs in biggest rally in five months

US stocks rally 2%

  • S&P 500 up 59 points (or 2.1%) to 2803
  • Nasdaq up 2.7%
  • DJIA up 2.1%
  • Toronto TSX up 0.8%
Is this the start of a turnaround or a dead-cat bounce? Who knows but that’s a big rally. The index erased a week of declines in a single day. I think the optimistic comments about getting a deal from Lopez-Obrador were the main driver but the market also liked a slight dovish slant from Powell.
Technically, the S&P 500 reclaimed the 200-day moving average, the late-March low and the May low… all in one day.
US stocks rally 2%

US stocks finish higher after shaky day of trading

US and European equities rebounded on Thursday but were still heading for their biggest monthly decline of the year as concerns have mounted over a global slowdown in the face of an intensifying US-China dispute over trade.

The S&P 500 finished 0.2 per cent higher, bouncing from its lowest close since early March, but having swung from gains of as much as 0.6 per cent to a decline of as much as 0.2 per cent.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note was down 1.9 basis points at 2.2168 per cent, having dropped sharply on Wednesday to their lowest level since September 2017. Bond yields fall as their prices rise.

Europe’s benchmark Stoxx 600 climbed 0.4 per cent on the penultimate day of the month from its lowest close since March 25. The index has fallen nearly 5 per cent in May, heading for its worst month this year. London’s FTSE 100 was down 0.5 per cent, easing off its lowest level since May 13.

Conflicts over trade and technology between the US and China have shown no signs of abating while expectations of slowing growth in the world’s biggest economies have mounted. Brazil’s economy meanwhile contracted for the first time in more than two years.

Latin America’s largest economy shrank in the three months to March for the first time since 2016. Gross domestic product fell 0.2 per cent in the first quarter, the first quarterly contraction since the final three months of 2016. The Brazilian real was 0.1 per cent weaker, with $1 buying BRL3.9786. (more…)

US stocks end lower but fight off a close below 200 day MA

S&P and Nasdaq avoid a close below the 200 day MA

The S&P and Nasdaq indices traded below their 200 day MAs today at 2776.42 and 7528.78 respectively. However, a bounce off the lows did not erase the declines in the major indices, but as a consolation prize, the broad indices closed back above the MA level.   We will see what tomorrow brings.
The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P index fell -19.49 points or -0.69% at 2782.95. The 200 day MA is at 2776.42.
  • The Nasdaq index fell -60.042 points or -0.79% at 7547.309. The 200 day MA is at 7528.78
  • The Dow fell 221.57 points or -0.87% at 25126.47. It’s 200 day MA was broken yesterday and it remains below that MA at 25430

Major indices close in the red after rise for the day fades away into the close

  • The Dow swung 300 points
  • Major indices on pace for the first negative month close in 2019
  • US/China deal a concern
The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P index fell -23.80 points or -0.84% at 2802.27. The low did bottom just above the natural 2800 level. If broken tomorrow, the  100 day MA is below that level at 2789.42 followed by the 200 day MA at 2776.48.
  • The Nasdaq fell -29.657 points or -0.39% at 7607.35. The low reached 7603.758. The high was up a 7693.73. It’ss 100 day MA is down at 7583.079. A move below it and the 200 day MA at 7528.88 will be more negative
  • The Dow fell -237.92 points or -0.93% at 25347.77. The high reache 25717.63. The low extended to 25342.28 – just below the close for the day.

Some winners today include:

  • Fiat, +7.24% on merger talks
  • AMD, up 9.8%
  • Chipotle, +2.68%
  • First Solar, +1.77%
  • Facebook, +1.79%
  • Adobe, +1.27%
  • Mastercard, +0.79%
  • Amazon, +0.79%
  • Visa, +0.64%
Losers today include:
  • Gilead, -4.37%
  • General Mills, -3.26%
  • Micron, -3.12%
  • Intel, -2.24%
  • Southwest Air -2.17%
  • Emerson, -2.13%
  • Morgan Stanley -1.84%
  • Goldman Sachs -1.83%
  • Stryker, -1.57%
  • IBM, -1.37%

An Update :Dollar Index ,INR ,EURO ,JPY ,AUD ,GBP ,CAD ,CRUDE ,SPX ,NASDAQ Composite ,Shanghai Composite -Anirudh Sethi

After pushing higher in the first part of last week, the US dollar reversed lower and saw follow-through selling ahead of the weekend.  The reversal saw all the major currencies but the British pound gain on the greenback last week. Although the ineptitude of Prime Minister May has weighed on sterling, the immediate reaction to her departure saw the pound fall as the risk of a no-deal exit rose.
As we discuss below, the technical condition warns that the corrective forces could continue through the week ahead.  Looking ahead of the macro calendar, this could persist until the run-up to the ECB meeting on June 6 and US employment data the following day.  Of course, these things are subject to change and fine-tuning.  The dollar remains supported by wide interest rate differentials and an economy that still appears stronger than Japan and most of Europe.  It strikes us that this is a short-covering correction for the major currencies rather than a turn in the underlying trend.
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