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Iran / US talks to revive the 2015 nuclear accord will resume this weekend

  
Analysis, Politics

Confirmation the talks would recommence came from US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman on Wednesday.

Sherman says the US administration is aiming to reach an agreement with Iran ahead of the June 18 Iranian presidential election, which could complicate the talks. Says:
  • I think there’s been a lot of progress made
  • but out of my own experience until the last detail is nailed down, and I mean nailed down, we will not know if we have an agreement
For more background on the talks and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)  Al Jazeera have a good piece here.
Oil traders will be watching for signs that an agreement could increase oil supply from Iran in the coming months. This has been spoken about at great length in past weeks and months.
biden iran

Yellen says will carefully review sanctions if Iran returns to nuclear agreement

  
Analysis, Politics

There’s a subtext here that’s important for oil

There's a subtext here that's important for oil
There’s a sequencing problem in Iran nuclear negotiations.
Iran says that once the US returns to the agreement and lifts sanctions, it will eliminate its nuclear stockpile. The US wants Iran to go first. Negotiators are trying to work out something where they act at the same time.
Yellen seems to be indicating that Iran needs to go first and they say that’s a non-started because it was the US that left the agreement, not them. So the US should come back into compliance first.
I don’t think this is what’s giving the latest lift to oil, which is up 38-cents to $66.60 — which is highest since May 18.

Weekend news – Iran says it will extend its (nuke) deal with the IAEA if needed

  
Analysis, Politics

The Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke to Japanese media, NHK, Friday.

He said Iran may consider extending its cooperation (referring to inspections of its nuclear sites) with the International Atomic Energy Agency

  • Iran hopes that enough progress will be made in the talks on the removal of US sanctions and other issues by late May so that there will be no need for an extension
  • But, if needed, Iran will consider an extension at a proper time.

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Another sign that tensions with Iran are slowly easing back a little.
NKH report Is here if you are after more.
The Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke to Japanese media, NHK, Friday. 

Iran nuclear talks will continue this weekend and they’re a big risk for oil

  
Analysis, Politics

A deal is a risk for oil

Iran nuclear deal
There are positive indications on an Iran nuclear deal, something that could add 2 million barrels per day to global oil supply.
A fourth round of negotiations began today in Vienna and both sides sound optimistic.
Here’s what a senior State Dept official said in a media briefing yesterday:
Let me just start by saying that there’s been a lot of reporting about whether this is the final round, whether this is the decisive one, whether a deal needs to be reached in the coming weeks.  And I would simply say that we feel that the last three rounds have helped to crystallize the choices that need to be made to – by Iran and by the United States in order to come back into a compliance-for-compliance return – well, returning to mutual compliance with the JCPOA. We think that those – that it’s a pretty clear set of choices that needs to be made, because we’re not inventing something new.  It is written in the JCPOA.  And if Iran makes the political decision that it genuinely wants to return to the JCPOA as the JCPOA was negotiated, then it could be done relatively quickly and implementation could be relatively swift.
It seems to me that the old nuclear agreement is on the table. Iran took that deal before and so I don’t know why they wouldn’t take it again.
The official said that from the US side, there is no hesitation:

(more…)

Weekend – Iran says US sanctions on oil, banks expected to be lifted. US says No.

  
Analysis, Politics

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said a deal was close and section on the country would soon be lifted.

Later, CNN with the US denial:
  • White House officials on Sunday denied Iranian state media reports that the US has reached an agreement with Iran to lift economic sanctions against the country, saying that there is still much to be negotiated over the coming weeks.
  • “There is no deal now,” national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Sunday on ABC News’ “This Week,” adding that “there’s still fair distance to travel to close the remaining gaps.”

China says US increasing military activity directed at it

  
Analysis, Politics

AP with the report, citing a spokesperson for the Chinese Defense Ministry.

  • Activity by U.S. military ships and surveillance planes directed at China has increased significantly under President Joe Biden’s administration
  • Activity by U.S. military ships was up 20% and by planes 40% in Chinese-claimed areas since Biden took office in January over the same period last year
  • “The U.S. frequently dispatches ships and planes to operate in seas and airspace near China, promoting regional militarization and threatening regional peace and stability”
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Note, China routinely objects to the U.S. military presence in the South China Sea

US expresses deep concerns re Russia’s plans to block parts of the Black Sea

  
Analysis, Politics

US State Departyment statement says expresses deep concerns regarding Russia’s plans to block foreign naval ships and state vessels in parts of the Black Sea. State dept. calls on Russia to stop harassment of vessels and reverse the build-up of troops at the Ukraine border

USD/JPY is dripping just a tad lower. Its not clear this is a response to the uptic in geopol tensions. The USD is lower against AUD and NZD so perhaps not. Will keep digging.

Rumour that US President Biden will accept a 25% corporate tax rate (instead of 28%)

  
Analysis, Politics

A report on US political maneuvering via Axios

  • Democratic senators concerned about raising the corporate tax rate to 28%
  • the rate will likely land at 25%, parties close to the discussion tell Axios
  • Biden’s plan to increase the rate U.S. multinationals pay on their foreign earnings from 10.5% to 21% is less controversial and stands a better chance of remaining intact in the final legislation.
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The background to this is Biden wanting the higher corp tax rate to help ‘pay’ for his infrastructure proposals.

Russia is retaliating against US sanctions

  
Analysis, Politics

Russia to expel US diplomats proportionally to US decision to expel Russian diplomats

The US imposed sanctions on Russia yesterday including making it more difficult for them to take part in the global economy if it continued its disruptive actions including in cyberspace and in Ukraine. The US is blaming the countries intelligence agency for hacking operations that breached American government agencies and the nations largest companies.
Russia is responding by expelling US diplomats proportionally to the amount of Russian diplomats expelled by the US. They also warn that is is only a little of what they can do.  They warn that they can hurt the United States economically if Washington wants to continue their “sanctions spiral”.
The US threatened to squeeze Russia’s ability to borrow money on global markets if the tensions escalate. However, the Russian foreign minister says that they are confident that they will be able to tap the global debt market this year.
Tensions are rising with the Biden administration.
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