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North Korea appears to have resumed operation of its plutonium-producing reactor

  
Analysis, Politics
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Producing plutonium will allow the country to expand its arsenal of nuclear weapons.

Wall Street Journal report on findings of the UN Atomic Agency:
  • “Since early July, there have been indications, including the discharge of cooling water, consistent with the operation of the reactor,” said the report by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
  • and there are indications that North Korea is also using a nearby laboratory to separate plutonium from spent fuel previously removed from the reactor.
The agency described the twin developments as “deeply troubling” and a clear violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions.
North Korea’s plutonium-producing reactor is at Yongbyon
  • appeared to have been inactive from December 2018 until the beginning of July 2021
Producing plutonium will allow the country to expand its arsenal of nuclear weapons. 

German SPD overtakes Merkel’s conservatives in poll for the first time in 15 years

  
Analysis, Politics

Is the tide finally turning on Merkel

Is the tide finally turning on Merkel
Merkel’s run as chancellor has been one of the great accomplishments in democratic politics but an opinion poll from Forsa shows that her time might be running out.
They have the Social Democrats (SPD) at 23% compared to Merkel’s CDU/CSU at 22% and the Greens at 18%. It’s the first time in 15 years that the SPD has polled ahead of Merkel.

Biden approval level falls 7 points to lowest level of his presidency

  
Analysis, Politics

Approval data from Reuters/IPSOS

Biden’s approval rating is down to 46% from 53% after the Afghanistan pullout, according to Reuters/IPSOS. That’s the lowest since he took office.
Here’s the trend in the data, though the chart hasn’t been updated:
Approval data from Reuters/IPSOS
For comparison, Trump’s average approval was 41%, Obama’s was 47.9% and G.W. Bush’s was 49.4%.

What the rout in Afghanistan means for markets

  
Analysis, Politics
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Not much impact

Not much impact
The swift fall of Afghanistan caught the world off guard with President Ashraf Ghani fleeing the capital as it fell.
It will certainly be the major geopolitical story this week but I don’t see any angles where it will affect markets. Afghanistan’s economy is tiny by any standard (except perhaps the opium trade). For example, Afghanistan uses only 30,000 barrels per day of oil.
What will happen is a human tragedy and an embarrassment for the US and the coalition that fought for 20 years to overthrow it but I don’t see how it moves the needle in markets in any way.
Some point to potential gold demand with people fleeing but even there, the minuscule wealth of Afghanistan is negligible.
The UN security council will meet on Monday.

US said to have asked 24 Russian diplomats to leave by September 3 – visa expiry

  
Analysis, Politics

Info comes via a Reuters report citing a weekend media piece.

  • Russia’s ambassador to the US says 24 Russian diplomats have been asked to leave by Sept. 3
  • after their visas expire
  • Ambassador Anatoly Antonov did not say whether the U.S. action was prompted by a particular dispute.
Reuters link is here for more. Reuters include some speculation on why this measures have been taken.
Info comes via a Reuters report citing a weekend media piece. 

German Foreign Minister Mass On Iranian nuclear talks

  
Analysis, Politics

US/Iran nuclear deal news

  • German Foreign Minister Maas says there are still some issue in Iranian nuclear talks, but some progress has been made
  • Assumes there is a chance to seal the deal in near future, even after the Iran election
Expect any news of a deal to send oil lower, but any dips may be quickly bought as fundamentals look good for oil over the medium term regardless of the Iranian supply

US / Iran talks to revive 2015 Iran nuclear deal – Iran says still work to be done

  
Analysis, Politics

Reuters with an update on talks, will be of interest to the oil traders.

  • essential issues remain to be negotiated, the top Iranian negotiator said on Thursday
  • “We achieved good, tangible progress on the different issues …. we are closer than ever to an agreement but there are still essential issues under negotiations,” Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi was quoted as telling Al Jazeera television.
Once the agreement is renegotiated Iranian oil should return to markets within months. Still a ways off though.
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Background to this is
  • The US withdrew from the agreement in 2018
  • Iran and six world powers have now been negotiating in Vienna since April

More Putin: US to blame for all of the worsenings of relations

  
Analysis, Politics

The superpowers remain foes

More from Putin on meeting with Biden:
  • Each side understands red lines
  • Conditions not right for a meeting in Moscow or Washington
  • Biden is a very constructive, balanced person.
  • US to blame for all of the worsening in relations
  • We didn’t feel any pressure from US side in talks
  • Talks were fruitful
  • He saw glimpse of hope about mutual trust
  • On sanctions, says it’s hard to say if pro-Russia or anti-Russia policies and US will prevail
Let’s face it, Russia and US will remain adversaries.
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