Johnson says that “this is the first tranche of what we are prepared to do”. In addition, there will also be asset freezes to the three supposed high-net worth individuals (Gennadiy, Nikolayevich, Timchenko).

He also adds that the UK and its allies need to prepare for a protracted crisis between Russia and Ukraine, with a full-scale Russian invasion still on the cards.

Reuters convey to comments made in a Tweet :

• “The work of Iranian negotiators towards progress is becoming more difficult every moment…while Western parties ‘pretend’ to come up with initiatives to avoid their commitments,”

from Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council

Oil gets a bit of volatility from reports out of the nuke talks with Iran. Traders perceive that if the talks go well it’ll bring Iranian oil back to the market (in time, of course). And vice-versa.

• Talks are in the ‘final stretch’
• Progress has been made in narrowing the list of differences
• Negotiators have returned to capitals for consultations to figure out whether leaders are prepared to make the tough political decisions needed
• Iran is shortening nuclear breakout time in ways that are ‘extremely dangerous’
• Talks with Iran have been business-like and the US can see a path to a deal
• We don’t think sequencing is going to be an insurmountable obstacle

It sounds more and more like a deal is coming together. The US needs lower oil prices more than it needs to keep Iran at bay. WTI was up another $1.48 to $88.30 today.

The question is: How much is priced into crude? I think the market is coming around to the idea of a deal but lately it hasn’t impacted crude. OPEC also says it has contingencies in place to deal with more Iranian crude, though I’m not sure that’s in plat at $90 brent.

Finally, it’s an open question how much oil Iran has been able to export outside of sanctions. There are many invisible barrels out there.

The US has requested a public UN Security COuncil meeting on Monday (January 31).

To discuss the build-up of Russian forces on the Ukraine border.

Info via Reuters, the news service citing unnamed diplomats

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Adding, this via Twitter sources so it may or may not be reliable, passing it on though:

• Biden told Zelensky that a Russian invasion of Ukraine is now virtually certain and that Kyiv needs to “prepare for impact” … comment said to be from a senior Ukrainian official to a CNN reporter

ADDED FURTHER – the US admin says this invasion comment is not correct. (Yep, always be wary of Twitter sources like this):

• President Biden said that there is a distinct possibility that the Russians could invade Ukraine in February. He has previously said this publicly & we have been warning about this for months. Reports of anything more or different than that are completely false.

“distinct possibility” vs. “virtually certain” is a big difference, yes. The distinction/clarification was made by a White House National Security spokesperson,

AFP had the small snippet:

• The United States warned Moscow of damaging sanctions, including measures personally targeting Vladimir Putin, as Russian combat troops massing around Ukraine launched new exercises.
• “Yes. I would see that,” Biden said when asked by reporters in Washington about targeting Putin

It’d be great if this de-escalated tensions. We’ll see.

News comes via a statement out of the UK. Adds:

• leaders agreed that should there be further Russian incursion into Ukraine allies must enact swift responses including a package of sanctions

Simmering tensions are not diminishing yet. The longer the war of words goes on, the better, I guess.