Archives of “Politics” category

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Russia says that its aircraft did not violate South Korean airspace

  
Analysis, Politics

Comments by Russia’s defence ministry

  • Russian strategic bombers did not violate airspace of other countries
  • Says that South Korean military planes crossed the path of Russian aircraft
  • That created a threat to their security
  • Says South Korean pilots did not communicate with Russian strategic bombers
  • Adds that it is not the first time South Korea has tried to interfere with Russian military flights over neutral waters
As is always the case with these geopolitical incidents, it’s a “your word versus mine” kind of thing. I doubt this will escalate into anything too serious but it’s good to stay abreast of the developments just in case.

With election over, US wants Abe to deliver on Iran and trade

  
Analysis, Politics
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Having scored a sound victory in the upper house election Sunday, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is back to confronting thorny diplomatic issues as Washington presses for tangible results on global security and trade.

U.S. President Donald Trump had signaled that he would wait until the Japanese election is over to push for a trade deal. Now Washington is certain to step up pressure to put together an agreement palatable to U.S. farmers ahead of the 2020 presidential election. Japan is increasingly alarmed by the U.S. bringing Trump style deal-making to diplomacy and trade.

John Bolton, the U.S. national security adviser, was in the Japanese capital Monday, seeking Tokyo’s support amid rising tensions with Iran. Bolton told Japanese Defense Minister Takeshi Iwaya that their two countries “are at an extremely critical juncture to strengthen the bilateral alliance.” He likely called on Tokyo to participate in a coalition that would safeguard ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard seized a British oil tanker in the strait on Friday. A Japanese-owned oil tanker also suffered an attack in the area in June.

Discussions about the future of the Japan-U.S. alliance will continue over the next several days and weeks, Bolton told reporters after his meeting with Iwaya, adding that he was very “optimistic” about the outcome.

Abe told reporters on Monday that he first wanted to focus on what Japan could do to ease tensions in the Middle East. “The peace and stability of the Middle East are critically important for Japan’s energy security,” Abe said. (more…)

North Korean media announcement on new “strategic” submarine

  
Analysis, Politics

NK media, KCNA, report on

  • submarine designed and built to be capable of fully implementing the military strategic intention of the Party

“Strategic’ is being read as a euphemism for nuclear missile capable. Its the first time NK has used the word in miliarty related press reports for more than a year, Pretty much highlights the end of any pretence of “denuclearization” .

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Not much yen response – its been flat for hours and just lost a few points in past minutes.

Trump on Iran says he is going to sit back and wait

  
Analysis, Politics
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Trump on Iran

  • Trump says he is going to sit back and wait, we’ll see what happens
  • He says it’s getting harder for him to make a deal with Iran, says it could go either way very easily
Obviously they’re not in a rush to war but that doesn’t mean they’re not putting some pieces in place. You don’t pre-announce any attack.
Separately:
  • Working on trade deals with Chinese President Xi

Pompeo says that US does not want a war with Iran

  
Analysis, Politics

Comments by US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo

  • Says it is up to UK to take care of their own ships (when asked about the incident on the British tanker being seized)
That’s a bit of a change in tone after they had previously warned Iran of ‘serious consequences’ on Friday. It’s all a bit of a mess but the ongoing tensions in the Middle East will at least help give oil prices a bit of a relief after last week’s downfall.

Chinese companies looking to buy U.S. farm products -Xinhua

  
Analysis, Politics
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Some Chinese companies are seeking new purchases of U.S. agricultural products, China’s official Xinhua News Agency said on Sunday, citing authorities, as Beijing and Washington look for ways to end a protracted trade war.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed at last month’s G-20 summit in Osaka to restart trade talks that stalled in May.

Trump said at the time he would not impose new tariffs and U.S. officials said China agreed to make agricultural purchases. But Trump said on July 11 that China was not living up to promises to buy U.S. farm goods.

Chinese businesses have made inquiries with U.S. exporters to buy crops and agricultural products and applied for the lifting of tariffs, Xinhua said, citing Chinese authorities. China’s Customs Tariff Commission will arrange for experts to appraise the Chinese companies’ tariff exclusion applications, Xinhua said.

“Relevant Chinese departments expressed hope that the United States would meet China halfway, and earnestly implement the United States’ relevant promises,” the news agency said, without elaborating.

The world’s two largest economies have been embroiled in a tariff battle since July 2018, as the United States presses China to address what it sees as decades of unfair and illegal trading practices. (more…)

Abe’s LDP and partner win majority in Japan upper house election

  
Analysis, Politics
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Japan’s governing Liberal Democratic Party and junior partner Komeito won a majority of the seats up for grabs in Sunday’s upper house election but the coalition and a conservative ally fell short of the two-thirds majority needed to move ahead with revising the constitution.

The victory gave a tailwind to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s plan to raise the consumption tax and allowing him to focus on trade talks with the U.S. as well as a widening dispute with South Korea.

As of 1:21 a.m. Monday, the ruling coalition had secured 69 seats of the 124 that were contested, according to a Nikkei estimate. That is enough to give the coalition a majority in the upper house. It holds 70 seats that were not up for grabs for a total of 139.

(more…)

Whistleblowers accuse Standard Chartered of $57bn in Iran deals

  
Analysis, Politics
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 Standard Chartered has been accused of handling $56.8bn of dollars in allegedly illegal transactions with Iran-connected entities in a civil suit brought by whistleblowers against the bank.

The whistleblowers allege StanChart cleared far more transactions in violation of Iran sanctions between 2009 and 2014 than the U.S. government used as the basis for fines paid by the bank in April.

The new claim filed on Thursday piles further legal woes on the emerging markets bank which has been hit with a series of penalties by U.S. law enforcement and regulators in the past seven years for lax financial controls and for handling transactions for companies in Iran and other sanctioned countries.

In April StanChart agreed to pay $1.1bn to settle charges that it violated sanctions and ignored red flags about its customers, after a multiyear investigation that followed settlements with U.S. authorities in 2012.

The settlement included a guilty plea by a former bank employee and a criminal indictment against a StanChart customer. It came shortly after the Trump administration began stepping up its pressure on Iran through additional sanctions. (more…)

US pressure & EU inaction left Iran with ‘very few options’ except to retaliate

  
Analysis, Politics
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The seizure of British-owned oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz is the signal that Iran’s patience has run out, due to European inaction for over a year after the US pullout from the nuclear deal, analysts told RT.

Prior to May, Iran exercised extreme restraint despite US sanctions and its frustration with Europe’s failure to offset the losses they caused, Hamed Mousavi, political science professor at the University of Tehran, said.

Eventually, Iran’s patience ran out, but not before the US “made sure that Iran has very few options remaining.”

“For a year Tehran was not doing anything and was abiding by the nuclear deal to the letter in the hopes that the Europeans would come up with a form of a mechanism… that would allow Iran to circumvent the US sanctions,” Mousavi said.

By refusing to hold back any longer, Iran wants to send a clear signal to the UK, “but especially to the Americans,” that Tehran has “the means and the power to respond to pressure and to aggression.” Iran’s actions are also a response to the US military build-up at its Middle East doorstep, Mousavi said.

Iranian journalist and Middle East expert Abbas Aslani agreed that the US withdrawal was what triggered the crisis along with the “inaction of the Europeans.”

The US might flex its military muscles in the Persian Gulf, but it’s likely not looking forward to entangling itself in a major war with Iran, especially with the US presidential election inching closer. In part, it is because Iran has convinced the US that it would never be a short, victorious war.

“What [US President Donald Trump] might be after is a short and quick attack against the country, but Iran has made sure through the channels it has that no quick war will happen if the Americans attack the country.”

Instead, the US would be looking at a long campaign that could see Iran attacking its military bases and interests in the region, the type of bog-down that can cost Trump his re-election.

Iran seized two British-operated vessels in the State of Hormuz on Friday, one of which has since been released after reportedly receiving warnings over safety and environmental issues.

The other vessel, the Stena Impero, is still in Iranian custody after being accused of maritime violations. Iran claimed that the tanker turned off its tracking device and ignored warnings before the seizure. The UK has denounced the incident as “unacceptable” but said that it hopes to resolve it through diplomacy.

ICYMI – US, China may have another trade call this week

  
Analysis, Politics

This was according to US Treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin

US China

He was briefing reporters at the White House yesterday:

“We expect to have another principal-level call this week, and to the extent we make significant progress, I think there’s a good chance we’ll go there (Beijing) later.”

This would be the second time that both sides are officially communicating (after the trade call last week) following the Trump-Xi meeting in Osaka at the end of June. All I can say is… Don’t hold your breath if you’re expecting anything noteworthy any time soon.
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