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UK, Germany, France say its clear Iran was responsible for the attack on Saudi oil facility

The three countries issue a joint statement.

More:
  • attack shows need for diplomacy to defuse tensions, engagement needed from all parites
  • they continue to back the 2015 nuclear deal, call on Iran to return to full compliance
Separately, US President Trump  says he will discuss Itan in his UN speech on Tuesday
  • says we have a lot of pressure on Iran

Iran envoys says won’t rule out war

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif refused to rule out military conflict in the Middle East after the US sent more troops and weapons to Saudi Arabia in response to an attack on oil fields the US has blamed on the Islamic Republic.

“I’m not confident that we can avoid a war,” Zarif said in an interview with CBS to be broadcast Sunday on its “Face the Nation” program.

“I’m confident that we will not start one, but I’m confident that whoever starts one will not be the one who finishes it.”

When asked to elaborate, Zarif said: “That means that there won’t be a limited war.”

Zarif was interviewed in New York, where he will attend the United Nations General Assembly session.

The US said Friday it will send a “moderate” number of troops to the Middle East and missile defence capabilities to the Saudis in response to last weekend’s attack on oil facilities.

The foreign minister criticised the move. “I think it’s posturing,” Zarif said, according to a transcript provided by CBS. “I think it’s all going the wrong direction in addressing this issue.”

US and Saudi analyses of the attack have described the strike as complex, involving a mix of low-flying drones and cruise missiles coming from the north.

The attack exposed vulnerabilities in Saudi Arabia’s defence capabilities, despite the Kingdom having spent hundreds of billions of dollars on weaponry in recent years.

American officials blame Iran for the attack that knocked out half the production of oil from a key Saudi field.

Houthi rebels fighting a Saudi-led coalition in Yemen took credit for the attack.

“I’m confident that Iran did not play a role,” Zarif said. Anybody who “conducts an impartial investigation will reach that conclusion,” he said.

Japanese media – North Korea may be preparing a submarine capable of launching SLBM

SLBM is submarine-launched ballistic missile. NHK with the report (via Bloomberg)

If you have a memory you’ll know the preparations have been ongoing for months at least.

Saudi-led coalition launches military operation in Yemen

If it was against Iran directly there might be some forex impact but Yemen, no.

If there are market jitters watch for flows out of risk and into havens. But nothing evident right now.
  • Saudi state TV with the report of a military operation Yemen against military targets

Trump: It is looking like Iran was responsible for attacks on Saudi Arabia

Trump comments to reporters:

  • Says he doesn’t want war with anyone but the US is prepared
  • US has a lot of options but he’s not looking at options yet; the US wants to find out who was responsible
This is going to grab headlines and might boost oil but I’m a bit less enthusiastic. Trump has a fairly strong anti-war bent that’s been one of the few consistent themes in his Presidency. There is certainly some reluctance here from him.

Rouhani has no plans to meet with Trump – Iranian official

Iran foreign ministry spokesman says that the two won’t be meeting in New York

US Iran

Iranian president Rouhani will be in New York for the United Nations General Assembly starting this week but there is still no clear indication that he will be meeting with US president Trump during his trip.

This just reaffirms that notion and continues to see Iran draw a hard line that they won’t head to the negotiating table until the US removes current sanctions against the republic.

US media says Iran launched nearly a dozen cruise missiles and over 20 drones in attack on Saudi

ABC news citing an unnamed Trump administration official

  • Iran launched nearly a dozen cruise missiles 
  • over 20 drones from its territory
  • a senior Trump administration official told ABC News Sunday.
officially:
  • so far, there’s been no public accusation that Iran launched missiles
Adds ABC:
  • But a senior U.S. official told ABC News Saturday that was false: “It was Iran. The Houthis are claiming credit for something they did not do.”
  • Pompeo tweeted that there was “no evidence the attacks came from Yemen.”
ABC news citing an unnamed Trump administration official

Australian intelligence says China responsible for cyber-attack on national parliament

Reuters with the report, pretty sure this was said already but if not:

  • Australian intelligence determined China was responsible for a cyber-attack on its national parliament and three largest political parties before the general election in May
  • five people with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters
  • Australia’s cyber intelligence agency – the Australian Signals Directorate (ASD) – concluded in March that China’s Ministry of State Security was responsible for the attack, the five people with direct knowledge of the findings of the investigation told Reuters. 
  • The five sources declined to be identified due to the sensitivity of the issue. Reuters has not reviewed the classified report.
Tensions with China are a negative for the AUD.

Sky reports China threatens military response if UK warships go near disputed islands

Via Sky comes a report that says China has warned Britain against sailing ships through disputed waters in the South China Sea

  • such a move would be “hostile”
  • hinting that Beijing would be forced to responded militarily
Reacting to a suggestion that the UK might send its aircraft carrier close to the contested Spratly Islands, with US jets onboard, China’s Ambassador to the UK said Britain “should not do this dirty job for somebody else”.
Via Sky comes a report that says China has warned Britain against sailing ships through disputed waters in the South China Sea
Huh. The South China Sea is a potential flashpoint for sure.
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