• Any possible contact of our forces with NATO’s could lead to consequences that would be hard to correct
• US exerting pressure on other countries with regards to Russia’s G20 membership
• Some countries are holding their own sovereign positions despite US pressure

As things stand, Russia is insisting that everything is as per what they thought out to be and it does look like the situation in Ukraine may drag on for quite some time yet. In other news, Moscow is also reaffirming that Putin plans to attend the G20 summit later this year in Indonesia – scheduled to be held in November.

• Ukraine president Zelensky’s said late Monday was prepared to discuss a commitment from Ukraine not to seek NATO membership in exchange for a cease-fire, the withdrawal of Russian troops and a guarantee of Ukraine security
• says it’s a compromise for everyone: for the West which doesn’t know what to do with us with regard to NATO, for Ukraine which once a security guarantees and for Russia, which doesn’t want to further NATO expansion
• called for direct talks with Russian Pres. Putin
• says it is impossible to understand whether Russia even wants to stop the war unless he meets face-to-face
• Kyiv will be ready to discuss the status of Crimea and the Eastern Donbass region held by Russian backed separatists after a cease-fire and steps toward providing security guarantees

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Al Jazeera cites Newsweek who cites a Russian intelligence document that says China has plans to invade Taiwan next autumn. I don’t know if that means 2022 or 2023. Either way, this is a big bombshell, though the source right now is confusing.

More to come.

Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser, spoke on the attack close to the border with Poland:

“If there is a military attack on Nato territory, it would … bring the full force of the Nato alliance to bear in responding to it,”

The UK’s Michael Gove on the same, warned that Putin was “pushing the boundaries”, and has “no moral limits”.

The base targetteed is in Yavoriv, called the International Centre for Peacekeeping and Security and previously used by Nato troops to train Ukrainian soldiers.

• no Nato troops were at the site at the time of the attack
• Russia said it had killed “up to 180” foreign fighters & destroyed a cache of weapons donated by the West in the long-range missile attack

• Meeting was easy because Lavrov followed his traditional rhetoric
• Difficult because I did my best
• No progress on ceasefire
• Most difficult situation is in Mariupol
• Lavrov did not commit to humanitarian corridor in Mariupol
• Ready to meet again in this format, continue engagement to stop the war

These threats are starting to sound less and less convincing when you factor in the impact it is all going to have on the euro area economy and markets. The likelihood of a recession in Europe has increased significantly amid the ongoing tensions. Not to mention that skyrocketing commodity prices – especially oil and gas – will do little to offer any comfort to European citizens.

UK Times says:

• President Zelensky has survived at least three assassination attempts in the past week, The Times has learnt.
• Two different outfits have been sent to kill the Ukrainian president — mercenaries of the Kremlin-backed Wagner group and Chechen special forces. Both have been thwarted by anti-war elements within Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB).

On Wednesday a missile struck a commercial vessel – four strikes on ships have been reported.

Ukrainian ports have been shut for over a week now.

NATO:

• “A large number of navigation warnings have been issued, covering a number of warning areas, including mine danger areas. Shipping is encouraged to stay well informed about these and keep well clear of the areas as well as warships and military crafts”

• Putin has agreed to organize negotiations after Zelensky said he was ready to discuss neutrality (not joining NATO)

• We have notified the Ukrainians of proposals to hold talks in Minsk
• Called Belarus’s Lukashenko to organise Minsk talks
• Ukraine proposed talks in Warsaw instead, then broke off contact
• Ukraine has yet to respond to proposal

It would seem there’s a path forward here but you’d hate to see it derailed over a fight on the location of talks.