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Iraq says that there are no casualties among Iraqi forces in missile strikes

  
Analysis, Politics
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Iraq says that there were 22 missiles launched into Iraqi airspace during the timing of Iran’s attacks

No mention of whether or not there were other casualties from the attacks by Iran. For those who are catching up, Iran has claimed that 80 American soldiers were killed by the missile strikes but US president Trump kept a more calm facade in saying that “all is well”.

You’d have to think that if there were significant US casualties, Trump would not wait until the morning to respond but let’s see how the situation unfolds.

Is this it? Are the US and Iran at war?

  
Analysis, Politics

These reports of attacks aren’t fake

The fog of war has descended over twitter and the news media. There is all kinds of fake news out there but there is enough real news from CNN, Fox, the BBC, Reuters and others to convince me that this is actually happening.
Most concerning is some talk that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has taken responsibility. At best you could argue this was some disconnected militias trying to create chaos. But from the US side I’m not even sure it matters. Trump almost has to respond now, especially if there are casualties.
If it is war (and it certainly looks like it), it’s tough to understate the consequences for global markets. For gold and oil this is a screaming buy and it’s bad news for stock markets. In FX, the trade is to buy the Swiss franc and Japanese yen.
WTI is up to $64.50 and gold is up $14 to $1588.

More details on Iran’s reported retaliation ‘scenarios’ against the US

  
Analysis, Politics

Iran says that the “revenge operation” will not just be one single operation

US Iran

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council secretary, Ali Shamkhani, says that “a total of 19 bases, including 11 head bases, the closest to the eastern and western borders of Iran, and along with 8 US bases in the north and south of Iran, are on high alert”.
Adding that “we are aware of their military personnel and equipment and we are tracking their smallest developments”.
This is basically an outright threat towards the US and it will be interesting to see how Trump responds to this – whether verbally or actual military action.
I’ve said it before, the first rule of military response is to never talk about it. The fact that Iran is so brazen about the issue certainly raises some eyebrows about what they plan to do.

Iran lawmakers reportedly approve bill designating Pentagon as terror group

  
Analysis, Politics

ICANA, Iran parliament’s official news service, reports

US Iran

It says that under the legislation, “all members of the Pentagon and related companies, as well as actors and commanders involved in the martyrdom of Qassem Soleimani, are designated in the list of terror groups”.

The bill is drafted as a form of retaliation against the recent US attack that killed Soleimani and was passed by a vote of 228-0, with two abstentions.
I would take this as a warning sign to potential escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East but until military action is taken, I reckon markets may turn a blind eye to developments such as the above for the time being.

US government has denied an entry visa to Iran’s foreign minister Zarif

  
Analysis, Politics

Zarif was to address the United Nations Security Council but has been denied entry into the United States.

Foreign Policy reports:
  • The Iranian government was awaiting word on the visa Monday when a Trump administration official phoned U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres to inform him that the United States would not allow Zarif into the country, according to the Washington-based diplomatic source.
Zarif was to address the United Nations Security Council but has been denied entry into the United States. 
This sort of diplomatic spat is better than a shooting war.

Some geopolitical comments from China and France are hitting the news wires

  
Analysis, Politics
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Speaking on the Middle East risks

France’s foreign minister is saying:
  • if tensions are not diffused today than there is a real risk of war in Middle East
  • there is still room for diplomacy on Iran crisis
  • Iran must refrain from reacting, start broader talks
  • says Soleimani was a key player in destabilizing the region
  • latest decision by Iranians enables them to enrich uranium without constraints
  • we can question the validity of nuclear deal in long-term
  • decision on triggering Iran nuclear deal dispute mechanism process will be made in coming days
meanwhile China is saying:
  • US unilateral use of force has violated international law and destabilizes the region
  • Urges US not to use a further force in Middle East, calls on all parties to exercise maximum restraint

Finally, the Trump administration has said that they would provide closed-door briefing on Iran to the full US Senate on Wednesday.  Secretary of State Pompeo, defense secretary Esper and CIA director Haspel, and Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Milley will address the Senate.

I guess the earlier tweet by Pres. Trump will be stepped up with some more formal communication.
Speaking on the Middle East risksFrench Foreign Minister says
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