Archives of “Politics” category

rss

US election – no sign of fraud in Georgia vote

  
Analysis, Politics

Comments from the Secretary of State for Georgia Brad Raffensperger in an interview (CNN):

 

  • says there is no sign of widespread fraud in Georgia vote
  • believe ballots were counted accurately in Georgia

 

The state of Georgia was a key pick up for President-elect Biden’s win in the presidential election and, conversely, a surprising loss for Trump in his overall loss of the election. Georgia had not been won by a Democrat presidential candidate since Bill Clinton’s days.

Map via BBC:

Comments from the Secretary of State for Georgia Brad Raffensperger in an interview (CNN):  

US election – AP declares Biden the winner

  
Analysis, Politics

AP have called the win for Biden:

  • Also declares Biden has won Pennsylvania
Joining in on pronouncing the inevitable, NBC and CNN have also both projected Biden has won the US presidency. Edison Research also.
Fox says it has still not made a final call. Which is slow for them, they were leaders on election night calling state wins for Biden well in advance of other networks. They took a lot of stick for it from the White House.  UPDATE – OK, here we go, Fox have joined in, says Biden has won Pennsylvania, Nevada, and also the US presidency. Fox have the Electoral Colege at  290 – 214 so far.
A big congrats to Kamala Harris, the first female vice-president of the United States.

Biden usa presdient
The trump campaign are still not conceding.

—
Since Tuesday the market has taken a Biden win as a strong positive for US stocks. In the FX space ‘risk’ currencies have also taken the upcoming change in US administration as a strong positive. Some of the euphoria will wash off, join me Monday morning for markets reopening for the new week and we’ll see if there is a further leg higher still to come though.

Trump to admit defeat after advice from advisers – Fox

  
Analysis, Politics

That’s an unexpected turn

Trump exit
Fox New sources say Trump will admit defeat after receiving advice from his advisors.
That would be a big surprise and remove many of the tail risks around the transition. It’s bullish for risk trades and this report is sparking a big bid in equity futures, which have now gone positive.
This is one of the things that’s hard to believe until it happens, especially after Trump’s rant last night. I expected him to never concede.
Here is a separate report on the mood:
Tweet

(more…)

Trump speaking – nothing of substance

  
Analysis, Politics

US freshly confirmed coronavirus cases were above 100,000 again today. And over 1,000 Americans died. So far Trump has not addressed the health disaster.

The focus is on the election in the press conference.
  • claiming he has won
  • whines the election has been stolen from him
  • claims fake media polls
  • mail in ballots are corrupt
The usual b/s from this guy.
—
OK, back to reality.
Vote counting results continue to come in.  Georgia is firming for Biden,
the Trump lead is now only just above3,600
and his Arizona lead is holding. Pennsylvania vote counts are coming in strongly in favour of Biden.
With any luck this could be declared tonight and we can get on with things.

Trump’s legal case to stop counting in Pennsylvania is not going well

  
Analysis, Politics

Trump’s lawyers are arguing to stop counting “any ballots so long as Republican observers are not present”.

Trump’s lawyers have freely admitted that observers representing Trump are indeed observing the counting.
Judge Paul Diamond
  • “I’m asking you as a member of the bar of this court: are people representing the Donald J Trump for president, representing the plaintiffs, in that room?”

Trump campaign lawyer:

  • “Yes.”
Diamond:
  • “I’m sorry, then what’s your problem?”
Not the sharpest tools in the shed are they?

(Info via an FT reporter)

Eyes on who will take the presidency, but what about the Senate?

  
Analysis, Politics

It seems most likely that the Republican Party will maintain its hold on the US upper house.

The count is still not finished yet but I’m gonna say its a Republican majority is “most likely”.
There are various implications, of most note for markets though (this in a nutshell) is
  • Biden’s tax rises will be opposed
  • and, even more importantly for markets further coronavirus economic stimulus will be small scale only

What is the key risk for the market ahead of the US election tomorrow?

  
Analysis, Politics

What are the odds of the election result getting delayed?

Trump Biden

It is finally election week. It has been a long wait but this may not be all over in a jiffy when tomorrow comes. As much as the pollsters are pinning Biden for a win tomorrow, nothing is for certain and Trump may still be triumphant as he was back in 2016.

In my view, the key risk for the market is that we see a tightly contested election where there is no clear winner just yet. That could see neither side submit defeat and there might be a bit of a limbo that could take days – or even weeks – to settle.
It may very well be unlikely, but this is a scenario well worth considering.
In that lieu, let’s keep the focus on the six key swing states that both sides will be contesting tomorrow and branch out from there; that being Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Michigan and Wisconsin.

(more…)

Pres. Trump: Nancy Pelosi does not want to pass new stimulus

  
Analysis, Politics

The debate is well….a debate

The debate is actually a good debate.  Both candidates are waiting their turns and the moderator is doing a good job in controlling the flow..  The e-mini futures are steady.
The topic has moved to the stimulus, immigration.
Trump:
  • Nancy Pelosi does not want to pass a new stimulus bill
  • when you raise the minimum wage small businesses will fire workers
  • we are trying very hard to reunite children at the border
Biden:
  • Every state is going to run into trouble. Not just the blue states
  • Biden blames McConnell for failure on stimulus
  • it is the right time to raise minimum wage
Go to top