Archives of “Gold / Silver” category

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Gold moves higher as dollar weakens

  
Analysis, Gold / Silver

Up $8 on the day

The price of gold is moving higher on the back of a weakening dollar today.
Looking at the hourly chart below, the precious metal tumbled lower after the US GDP report (and initial run higher in the USD) but has reversed course and trades at the highest level since April 16th. At the low, the price did move back below the 200 and 100 hour MAs, but that was quickly reversed.  There is a short covering going on.
Up $8 on the day
The price has moved above the 38.2% at $1283.32 (of the trend move down from the April 10 high).  The 50% of the same move is the next target at $1288.55.  Close risk for longs would likely center on the $1280.95-$1283.32 area. The $1280.95 is the low from April 4. The $1283.32 is the 38.2% retracement.

Gold takes out the March lows and nears the worst levels of the year

  
Analysis, Gold / Silver

What’s driving the gold market right now

Commentary so far in Q1 earnings has been solid but it’s very early. Today the CFO at Bank of America said the economy was “solid” even though growth has slowed.
What the gold market is trying to figure out is whether central banks are going to have to ease further. That’s slowly shifting towards ‘no’. The chance of a Fed cut this year is down to 38% from as much as 76% in late March. Not coincidentally, gold was at $1326 at the time.
In short, gold is basically a trade on Fed easing and a trade on bad news coming.
Right now, the news isn’t exactly glowing but it’s not getting worse. That could change in a heartbeat but with the breakout of AUD/JPY to the upside, I think gold is vulnerable and a break of the January low will be ugly.
Gold chart

Weekend data on surging Chinese gold reserves – March buying of 11.2 tons of gold

  
Analysis, Gold / Silver

In addition to forex reserves, data released on China’s gold holdings was released over the weekend

Gold reserves up for the fourth consecutive month
  • People’s Bank of China raised reserves to 60.62 million ounces in March
March inflow was 11.2 tons
  • this compares to February’s at +9.95 tons, January +11.8 tons, December +9.95 tons

In addition to forex reserves, data released on China's gold holdings was released over the weekend

An Update :US Dollar Index ,Euro ,INR ,YEN ,GBP ,CAD ,AUD ,CRUDE ,GOLD ,SILVER ,DJIA ,SPX ,Nasdaq Composite -Anirudh Sethi

  
Analysis, Crude, Forex, Global Indices, Gold / Silver
The Federal Reserve was more dovish than expected, but that did not stop the dollar from appreciating against most of the major currencies last week.  Even the Norwegian krone, which one would have thought would have been better supported following the central bank’s rate hike, closed lower on the week. Among the majors, the yen and Swiss franc were resilient in the face of the dollar’s strength.
The dollar also rose against many of the high-beta emerging market currencies, like the Turkish lira, the South African rand, the Hungarian forint, and Argentina’s peso.   The Mexican peso was an exception.  It had rallied nearly 1.8% until surrendering 2/3 ahead of the weekend, managing to close 0.6% stronger.  The Indian rupee gained for the fifth consecutive week, but the momentum appears to be fading, setting the stage for a near-term pullback.  The Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervened last week to further weakness, and helped by the fall in US yields, saw some success by the end of the week.  The Hong Kong dollar gained 0.03% against the US dollar last week.
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