Archives of “Gold / Silver” category

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Goldman Sachs update their gold price forecasts, 3, 6 and 12 months (and on what could take it to $1600)

  
Analysis, Gold / Silver

Gold price projections from Goldman Sachs:

  • 3 months $1450 (prior forecast was at $1350)
  • 6 months $1475 (from $1350)
  • 12 months $1475 (from $1425)
Reasoning from GS:
  • gold supported by central bank buying, GS expect the buying to be more than 100 tonnes over last year’s levels
  • lower real interest rates to support gold
More:
  • base case scenario is global growth gradually improves in H2 of 2019
  • recession worries recede
  • should eventually lead to a gradual moderation in “fear” driven investment demand for gold
  • Emerging market GDP growth gradually improves
GS say they see less tactical upside for gold
  • but weak growth in DM is a positive strategically (portfolio diversification)
  • if slow growth in DM persists, GS expect 2016 to repeat (ETF buying increased by 800 tonnes Jan to Sep that year) – this could take gold prices above $1600

Have a look at who bought 200,000 ounces of gold just before it surged

  
Analysis, Gold / Silver

Kitco reports on a purchase by Russia (the Russian central bank)

(Kitco citing Russian central bank press release)
  • buying another 200,000 ounces or 6 tonnes of gold in May
  • total Russia total gold holding now at 2,190 tonnes (as of June 1)
Russia is not, of course, the only buyer, China (and others) have been huge buyers as reported in March, April, May (and further back!). For example:
  • (March) Chinese gold reserves – March buying of 11.2 tons of gold
  • (April) China stashing away more gold – bullion reserves up for a 5th straight month
  • (May) China – gold purchases running higher.
Kitco reports on a purchase by Russia (the Russian central bank) 

Gold climbs back above $1350 on ‘additional stimulus’ talk

  
Analysis, Gold / Silver

Gold rises to $1354

Gold rises to $1354
Gold yields nothing, but that’s better than billions of sovereign bonds. French, Austrian and Swedish 10-year bonds hit a zero yield today for the first time after Mario Draghi said additional stimulus will be needed “in the absence of any improvement” in the outlook.
Gold rose $13 to $1352 as yields globally sank and stock markets jumped.
The $1350 level is key because it was the February high. It was breached on Friday briefly but the gains later evaporated. The next level to watch is $1358, which was the intraday high on Friday. It will surely break if the Fed sends a dovish signal.
Beyond that, we could be in the process of breaking out of a multi-year consolidation pattern that’s capped at $1381. The sky would be the limit if that gives out, especially if it’s coupled with central bank easing, a trade war and other uncertainty.
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