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European shares end the day with gains

10 year yields are lower in Europe

The European equity markets closed and the major indices are ending with gains:
  • German DAX, +0.47%
  • France’s CAC, +0.4%
  • UK’s FTSE, +0.46%
  • Spain’s Ibex, 0.2%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.8%

In the benchmark 10 year note sector, yields are mostly lower (with the exception of the Italy BTP).

10 year yields are lower in EuropeFrance’s 10 year yield on June 18th, moved to -0.01% (all time low). Today, the yield dipped to a low of 0.008%.  Germany’s 10 year is already negative at -0.321%.  Spain is only 39 basis points from going negative.  Rates are pushing on a string.
France's 10 year yield is pushing toward 0.0%

US 2-year yields fall to lowest since 2017

June lows give way

The bond market is clearly pricing in a larger chance of rate cuts. The yield on the two-year note is down 10 basis points to 1.76%.
June lows give way

The good news for the economy (if you want to stretch) is that the yield curve is steepening with 2s10s up 7 bps and 2s30s up 8 bps.  The message here is that the Fed is getting the message that it needs to cut rates.

Nikkei 225 closes lower by 0.72% at 20,972.71

Tokyo’s main index falls amid mixed mood in Asian trading

Nikkei 18-06

Markets are in a state of flux ahead of the Fed tomorrow with the risk mood holding softer in Asia as Treasury yields are notably weaker alongside a more subdued performance in US equity futures to start the day.

The lower yields is helping to push gains in the yen and swissie to start the session but there isn’t any major breakouts yet among major currencies. The bouncing of risk sentiment is likely to continue over the next few sessions until the FOMC meeting is out of the way so expect more of the same in the European morning today.

Eurostoxx futures flat in early European trading

Flat tones observed in early trades

  • German DAX futures flat
  • French CAC 40 futures +0.1%
  • UK FTSE futures +0.1%
This mainly mirrors the mood seen in US equity futures, which are also trading at flat levels as we begin the session. Risk trades are still mostly searching for direction but I would expect the indecision to continue until we get to the release of US retail sales data later.
As such, I reckon we could expect a more subdued session in the European morning ahead.
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