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European shares little changed to end the week

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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Major indices lower on the week

The major European indices are in the week little changed. For the week, there are modest declines.

The provisional closes for today are showing:

  • German DAX, -0.1%
  • France’s CAC, +0.3%
  • UK’s FTSE, -0.1%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +0.35%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, unchanged
For the week, most indices are ending lower:
  • German DAX, -1.95%
  • France’s CAC, -0.44%
  • UK’s FTSE, -0.63%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.40%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +1.1%
Looking at the hourly chart of the German Dax below, the index traded below its 50 hour MA on Monday, below the 100 hour MA (blue line) on Tueday and felll below its 200 hour MA (green line) yesterday. Today, that 200 hour MA was a lid for the brief ralllies.
On the downside, the 38.2% at 12260.52 is the next target.

Nikkei 225 closes higher by 0.51% at 21,643.53

  
Analysis, Global Indices

Asian equities gain as Fed chair Powell reaffirms July rate cut expectations

Nikkei 11-07

Equities in the region are mainly taking its cue from Wall Street, trading higher on the back of sentiment that the Fed will be looking to cut rates later this month.

Powell’s testimony all but sealed the deal in that regard and that is feeding into equity gains ahead of European trading as well. US futures are up by 0.2% currently and that should offer similar sentiment to European stocks as well as we begin the session.

European major indices close with modest declines

  
Analysis, Global Indices

UK’s FTSE unchanged

The major European stock indices are closing with modest declines.
The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, -0.5%
  • UK’s FTSE, unchanged
  • France’s CAC, -0.1%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.2%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB bucked the trend moving up by 0.73%
  • Portugal’s PSI 20 unchanged
In the benchmark 10 year note sector, yields are mostly higher. France’s 10 year toyed with the idea of moving back to the positive side, rising to 0.022%, but has backed off and trades at -0.015%.  German 10 year traded as low as -0.34% and as high as -0.281% and is currently trading at -0.306%
 UK's FTSE unchanged

European shares end mostly in the red

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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German Dax down -0.85%

The European major stock indices are closed and the provisional closes by pointing mostly to the downside:
  • German DAX, -0.85%
  •  France’s CAC, -0.3%
  • UK’s FTSE, -0.1%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.1%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.41%
Over the last 24 hours, BASF, the large German chemical company gave an earnings warning blaming what weakness and US-China trade war.  They do not see the situation improving in the 2nd half of 2019. The German economy saw factory orders fall on Friday.  Daimler cut its profit outlook for the 3rd time in a year.  Deutsche Bank announced yesterday that it would cut 18,000 jobs globally in a restructuring play to save the bank.
In the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are ending the session mixed with German, France and UK rates higher, while the riskier Spain, Italy and Portugal yields saw investor demand (lower yields).
German Dax down -0.85%

Nikkei 225 closes higher by 0.14% at 21,565.15

  
Analysis, Global Indices

Japanese stocks held up despite a slump elsewhere around Asia

Nikkei 09-07

The drop today is mainly led by tech-related firms – namely Apple suppliers – after the US company’s own slump in overnight trading. Losses are seen more evident in Chinese markets with the Hang Seng index lower by 0.6% while the Shanghai Composite is down by 0.3% in trading currently.

The more cautious market sentiment continues to prevail and should extend towards European equities as well later on. US futures are down by 0.3% as we begin the session.
All eyes remain on Fed chair Powell’s testimony tomorrow, so that will keep markets on edge until we hear from the man himself.

European major stock indices are ending the session mixed

  
Analysis, Global Indices

Small changes in the major European indices

The provisional closes for the major European stock indices are showing mixed results:
  • German DAX, -0.2%
  • France’s CAC, -0.1%
  • UK’s FTSE, +0.01%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.6%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.04%
  • Portugal PSI 20, -0.35%
IN the benchmark 10 year note sector, Spanish yields have surged 11.2 basis points today as investors liquidate long positions.
Small changes in the major European indices

Nikkei 225 closes lower by 0.98% at 21,534.35

  
Analysis, Global Indices

Asian stocks pull back as Fed rate cut expectations recede

Nikkei 08-07

Equities in the region are posting heavy declines on the day and that owes largely to a fall in expectations that the Fed will aggressively cut rates in its upcoming July meeting. This of course comes after the more steady US jobs report seen on Friday.

Odds of a 50 bps rate cut has been slashed from ~27% before the report to now just be ~3% and that’s helping to keep equities on the back foot to start the day. The Hang Seng is down by 1.9% while the Shanghai Composite is down by 2.7% currently.
US equity futures are also lower by 0.4% amid weaker Treasury yields so the softer risk sentiment is what’s playing out as we begin the European morning. USD/JPY holds near session lows at 108.30 as a result.

An Update :Dollar Index ,EURO ,INR ,YEN ,GBP ,CAD ,AUD ,PESO -Anirudh Sethi

  
Analysis, Crude, Forex, Global Indices
Some naysayers who insist on cursing the thorn instead of being inspired by the beauty a rose find something or other to fret about in the June employment report that easily exceeded expected job growth and was the best since January.  It succeeded in doing what several regional Fed presidents were unable to do, and that is to force a reassessment of the likely trajectory of Fed policy.
The yield of the January 2020 fed funds futures contract, which is among the best metrics for expectations of Fed policy in H2, rose nine basis points after the employment data, the largest increase in six months.  The yield has risen by more than 20 bp since the day after the FOMC met in June.  This, in the context of Draghi’s dovishness and expectations that Lagarde will continue the course (shades of Bernanke-Yellen), has boosted the dollar.  Trump’s attempt to talk the dollar down fell on deaf ears, and the technical outlook that we review below suggests scope for dollar strength to carry into next week.
To be clear, our suspicions that the third significant dollar rally since the end of Bretton Woods is over is a larger and longer-term view.  Closer to home, last week we suggested that the point of peak dovish had passed and that this favored a stronger dollar.  However, we thought the technicals were more supportive of sterling.  Instead, sterling slid to new lows since the early January flash crash before recovering a bit to close 1.3% lower.  Despite the 0.2% loss ahead of the weekend, the Canadian dollar managed to the only major currency that held its own against the dollar, rising about 0.15%.
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