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Crucial Update :Dollar Index ,Euro ,INR ,YEN ,GBP ,CAD ,AUD ,PESO ,CRUDE ,SPX 500 .NASDAQ Composite -Anirudh Sethi

  
Analysis, Crude, Forex, US Market
The US dollar fell against all the major currencies except the Japanese yen in the week following the disappointing job growth in February.  The Norwegian krone was the strongest of the majors, appreciating 2.8% against the dollar and nearly 2% against the euro amid speculation the central bank will be the first, and maybe only major central bank to hike rates this year.
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The strongest and weakest currencies this week are…..???

  
Analysis, Forex

The GBP runs away with the strongest. The JPY and USD are the weakest

As the week comes to a close, it’s time to rank the strongest and weakest currencies.
The run away strongest was the GBP. That currency benefitted from the squeeze into all the votes, the blocking of the no-deal and I guess the hoped for extension of Article 50. What is still up in the air is if PM May can get the votes for her deal or if she can present another deal that the EU27 will agree to.  There may be the question of whether the EU27 will agree to an extension. Government officials met with the DUP leaders today and made “progress” with them (for votes).  Talks will continue over the weekend and early next week).
The weakest currency was the JPY and the USD. The JPY was hurt of flights out the safety of the JPY as global stocks moved nicely higher. The US saw most of the declines vs the GBP and EUR (a Brexit deal would help both presumingly).

Dollar holds firm as US, China said to push back meeting between Trump, Xi

  
Analysis, Forex

The greenback remains steady as risk assets decline

EUR/USD H1 14-03
Of note, EUR/USD touched a low of 1.1305 while AUD/USD and NZD/USD are also trading at session lows respectively of around 0.7050 and 0.6816. The dollar was already holding firm on the day against the major currencies bloc but the news of a postponement to the Trump-Xi meeting just pushed the greenback a little higher.
This comes as equities pare earlier gains as seen by US equity futures here:
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Cable breaks above 1.33 in massive rally

  
Analysis, Forex

Now up 235 pips on the day

Keep an eye on 1.3350 as cable mounts a monumental rally. The chart of the past three days has been an absolute mess with massive moves in both directions.
Now up 235 pips on the day
The climb above the weekly high is bullish but a break of 1.3350 would be the key technical change. That’s going to be tough in the short-term but liquidity is going to be lower in the hours ahead so it could be a dangerous one.

EUR/USD languishes just under the 1.13 handle, what is happening?

  
Analysis, Forex

EUR/USD sits in a 7 pips range so far today

EUR/USD H1 13-03
Yup, that is no joke. The pair is only trading between 1.1283 and 1.1290 as there isn’t much volatility in the major currencies space so far today. Price continues to languish just under the 1.1300 handle as buyers continue to try and establish a more bullish near-term bias but is finding resistance around the figure level tough to break above.
Currently, there is the 200-hour MA (blue line) @ 1.1290 and mild offers as well as large expiries sitting at the 1.1300 handle that is helping to limit gains for the pair. Meanwhile, price is holding just above the 76.4 retracement level of the ECB drop with buyers looking poised to keep price above 1.1280.
With several key levels hovering around 1.1290-00, that should be a notable attraction level ahead of the US core durable goods orders data later; one that should offer traders something to react upon. For buyers, establishing a move above the 200-hour MA and the 1.1300 handle is key for an extension to the upside.
Despite the ECB’s recent dovish shift, the one thing that the euro has working for it is perhaps positioning data. CFTC’s latest report (as of 5 March) indicates that euro shorts have been the most stretched since December 2016 and that is something that could help to work in the single currency’s favour as sellers look to square some of their positions following a large event like the ECB last week.
EUR CFTC

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The JPY is the strongest currency this week, while the GBP was the weakest

  
Analysis, Forex

The USD was mostly higher

As the week comes to a close, which currencies were the big movers?
Taking a look at the % changes of the major currencies, the JPY was the strongest helped by “safety flows”.  The GBP was the weakest as traders got antsy about the lack of Brexit progress.
The USD was mostly higher rising against all the currencies with the exception of the NZD (down -0.10%) and the JPY (the greenback fell -0.71%) .

Reuters polling shows the US dis expected to fall 4% (and EUR/USD up 5%)

  
Analysis, Forex
Latest Reuters poll of over 70 currency strategists taken Feb 28-March 6
  • USD expected to weaken
  • EUR/USD forecast at $1.19 in a year
Strategists said a positive outcome to U.S.-China trade negotiations was already priced in
  • not likely to give the USD a lift
Reuters with a comment from MUFG
  • “As we pointed out at the start of this year, we see the relative cyclical support for the dollar being less favourable this year than last and that suggests to us some dollar depreciation ahead. The end of balance sheet shrinkage will reinforce a much less active Fed on raising the fed funds rate
  • In addition, there is already evidence of foreign investors being more reluctant to invest in U.S. portfolio securities and we view this reduced appetite as partly a consequence of the level of the U.S. dollar and partly on concerns over the deteriorating budget deficit outlook.”
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