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USDJPY trades to new session highs and test 112.00

Cracked above the April high and stayed above

The USDJPY cracked above the April 5 high at 111.818 and stayed above today. It wasn’t without first testing it in the Asian session first.  That increases that levels importance. Stay above and the bulls remain in control. PS the low today based at another key swing level at 111.572.
USDJPY cracked above the April high and stayed above
Looking at the daily chart below, the pair is approaching the 112.00 area and also swing levels going back to November, December and March starting at the 112.07 to 112.279 area (see yellow area in chart below).  The high price in March reached 112.13. The 112.07-13 is target one and then 112.28 on a break of that level.

USDJPY on the daily is approaching the March 2018 highs at 112.07-13
Close risk has to be the 111.79-111.81 level (from the hourly – give a few pips).  Stay above, keeps the buyers in control. Move below and the break to new highs, loses some of its followers.

EURUSD soars and breaks out. Above topside trend line

Shorts squeezed

The EURUSD is soaring in higher in trading today helped by risk on flows and technical breaks.
Shorts squeezed. EURUSD takes out technical levels
Technicaly, the price was able to get above – and move away from the 1.1285 area that has been a ceiling of late for the pair. After that, the pair cracked above a topside trend line at 1.1305 currently and has been able to stay above that line too.  We trade at session highs and the highest levels since March 26.  The pair is also trading above and below the 50% midpoint of the move down from the March 20 high at 1.13154 (high not shown).

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After all the Brexit efforts and deadline extension agreement, GBP doesn’t care.

This quick note on sterling via ING pretty much sums it up …

GBP: Neither here nor there 
The 6 month extension of Article 50 modestly weighed on GBP given that 
  • (a) the cliff edge of hard Brexit is still in sight and not being postponed long enough; 
  • (b) the not long enough extension is unlikely to allow the BoE to hike interest rates, meaning that GBP will miss on one potential positive catalyst. 
In the meantime, the extension is unlikely to improve business confidence much, thus limiting the upside to GBP. With the bar for the Brexit deal being passed through the UK Parliament by the October deadline still rather high and the rising probability of a change in Conservative leadership ahead of the October deadline (ie Conservative Party Conference in Sep), this suggests a difficulty for EUR/GBP to move below the 0.8500 level

AUD/USD breakout turns into a fakeout

Rally to six week high yesterday erased

Rally to six week high yesterday erased
AUD/USD has completely erased yesterday’s gain in a 50-pip fall to 0.7124 today. It’s a disheartening turn after the pair hit the highest since February 26 a day ago.
The failure to hold and close above 0.7168 underscores resistance there but on the downside there is uptrend support at 0.7075 and the April low of 0.7053.
Like so many trades in FX right, the range is dominating and we sit and wait for a break.

Where to for the yuan? Analysts offer up diverging views

Conflicting views on the Chinese currency

Morgan Stanley like yuan, citing (in brief)
  • we believe the downside of owning CNH is very limited now as the authority is likely to keep a stable or stronger currency. 
  • Meanwhile, there are a few data points from China (credit growth, CPI and trade balance) this week and our economist is more bullish on most of the data vs the Street. e recommend selling USD/CNH, along with our more structural bullish view on CNH vs SGD, as we expect CNH to strengthen in trade-weighted basket terms. The risk to the trade is downside surprise in Chinese data.
Citi says they expect the appreciation bias for yuan to strengthen near-term, citing
  • improving chance of a trade deal
  • little PBOC intervention
  • better-than-expected data
  • an easing in capital outflow pressures
Commerz:
  • say traders will be cautious as the US and China have not yet reached a deal
  • see yuan falling moderately
  • longer term depends on the deal details
Daily CNH chart:
Conflicting views on the Chinese currency

Crucial Update : US Dollar Index ,Euro ,Yen ,GBP ,INR ,CAD ,AUD ,PESO ,OIL ,US Yields ,SPX ,Nasdaq Composite -Anirudh Sethi

The US dollar remained firm last week.   The strongest of the majors was the Norwegian krone, and it rose less than 0.2% against the greenback.   The volatility is continuing to compress.  The one-month euro and yen implied volatility is a little below 5%, which puts it at five-year lows.   Another important characteristic of the foreign exchange market is that speculators are long dollars, which in the futures market is expressed as short the currency contracts.  Non-commercials (speculators) are net short all the major currency pairs.  The speculative net short position is the largest since 2016.  They are net short the most yen contracts in three months and the most Australian dollars contracts in five months.
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The inversion of the US Treasury yield curve

Why the focus is on the Treasury yield curve by Giles Coghlan

Why the focus is on the Treasury yield curveWhy the focus is on the Treasury yield curveUS 10 year Treasury yields touched a 14-month low in late March as concerns mounted regarding the trajectory of the Federal Reserve. This article is for you if you have been reading about the inverted yield curve in US Treasuries, but haven’t really understood what it means. Don’t worry if that is the case since one of the most often overlooked areas for FX traders is the impact the bond markets have on the FX sphere. However, it is an important area to master and not understanding why the inversion on bond yields is so important can be a major barrier in fundamental knowledge of the underlying financial forces at play in the equity, fx sphere and beyond. So, if you need a heads up on the inversion of the yield curve, and why it matters so much, read on. We will start with an explanation of what a bond actually is.Firstly, understanding the basics of what a bond isThink of a bond as simply a type of loan. It is a loan taken out by Governments and companies. When Governments and very large companies want to borrow money they can’t easily go to a bank because of the huge amounts of money involved. So, a bond is the mechanism by which a Government or large corporation borrows money for their needs.The bond is issued for a set period of time. Bonds can be purchased for different lengths of time from short term, medium term and long term bonds. Short term bonds are only for a year or two, medium term bonds are up to 10 years and long term bonds are generally 10 years or longer. These bonds have a coupon or yield rate.Secondly, understanding what a yield is on a bond (more…)

CFTC Commitment of Traders: EUR short position approachs 100K

Weekly forex futures non-commercial positioning data from the CFTC

  • EUR short 99K vs 80K short last week.  Shorts increased by 19K
  • GBP short 10K vs well run some 9K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
  • JPY short 63K vs 62K short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
  • CHF short 26K vs 27K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
  • CAD short 44k vs 40k short last week. Shorts increased by 4K
  • AUD short 56k vs 54k short last week. Shorts increased by 2K
  • NZD 0K vs 0K short last week. No position of significance in the NZD
The EUR short is the largest short since December 2016.
Weekly forex futures non-commercial positioning data from the CFTC
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