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CFTC Commitments of Traders: Euro longs grow, CAD shorts trimmed

  
Analysis, Forex

Weekly FX speculative positioning data from the CFTC:

  • EUR long 104K vs 98K long last week
  • GBP short 16K vs 21K short last week
  • JPY long 17K vs 24K long last week
  • CHF long 4K vs 4K long last week
  • AUD short 1k vs 3K short last week
  • NZD short 0K vs 0K short last week
  • CAD short 17k vs 21K short last week

The timing on trimming the CAD shorts was sub-optimal with the pair lagging this week.

A ‘death cross’ for the USD

  
Analysis, Forex
(ps. a Death Cross is when the 50-day MA crosses to underneath the 200-day moving average … or so I am told 😀 )
BoA add that on  9 occasions since 1980 when the DC has occurred 8 times USD weakness followed.
—
I guess if you are looking for fundamentals to support a lower US dollar they are not difficult to come across:
  • the neglectful and inept government response to the coronavirus pandemic in the US
  • the riots, which have since subsided
  • US election uncertainty
  • political fragmentation being stoked and accelerating
  • Europe is on a much better recovery path, positive for EUR/USD
 death cross

USDJPY moves closer to the low extreme over the last 5-6 days

  
Analysis, Forex

Range is only 54 pips over since July 1

The USDJPY moved below and stayed below its 100/200 hour moving averages at the 107.52 area and stayed below. That give sellers the go ahead to push lower.  The overall dollar selling also has helped the bias (in a more limited move however compared to other currencies).
Range is only 54 pips over since July 1
The fall has taken the price to 107.28. That is just above the swing lows from Monday and Tuesday between 107.239 and 107.25.
The range since July 1 has only been 54 pips with a low at 107.24 and a high at 107.78.  Moving below the lower extreme should open up the door for a test of the 50% retracement of the move up from the June 23 low. That level comes in at 107.112.
The range for the day is now 42 pips. The average over the last month of trading is 59 pips. So there is room to roam on a break. However, that requires a break below the week’s lows.

An Update :US Dollar Index ,Euro ,JPY ,GBP ,CAD ,AUD ,YUAN ,GOLD ,CRUDE -Anirudh Sethi

  
Analysis, Forex
Are You Dying by the Hands of Analysis? - OPEXEngine
The dollar fell against all the major currencies last week, save the Japanese yen.  All five of the best performers (NOK 2.1%, NZD 1.6%, AUD 1.0%, GBP 1.0%, and CAD 0.9%) appeared to take out downtrend lines that were in place since around June 10.  What is striking about the dollar’s slump is that it took place as the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet was shrinking for the third consecutive week and the unsecured overnight rate in the eurozone fell to new record lows, often cited as dollar-supportive.
The same is true of the JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index.  It snapped a three-week downdraft with a 1.1% rally that lifted the benchmark above the downtrend line begun with a key reversal of June 10.  The greenback had been trending higher against the Mexican peso since then as well and last week’s 2.7% decline pushed it below the trendline.
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Dollar little changed after strong jobs report

  
Analysis, Forex

Stocks higher. Rates higher.

The dollar is him relatively little changed after the stronger than expected US jobs reports. They were bounce bit by the higher initial claims and continuing claims for the week.
US stocks are higher with the NASDAQ up nearly 100 points in the Dow up 376 points. The S&P index is up 35.6 points currently.
US yields are higher, with the yield curve steepening. The 2 year is up 0.6 basis points to 0.164%. The 10 year is up 2.5 basis points at 0.700%. The 30 year is up the most with a gain of 3.4 basis points to 1.457%.
In the forex:
  • EURUSD. The EURUSD is up a few pips after rising from 1.12852 to a high of 1.12969. The current price is trading around 1.1285
  • USDJPY: The USDJPY move from 107.25 to a high of 107.557. That was near the high price from the Asian and London morning session. The pair is currently trading at 107.51 up about 26 pips from the pre-market level. The price is trading right around its 100 hour moving average at 107.496
  • GBPUSD. The GBPUSD moved from 1.2509 to a high of 1.2529. We currently trade at 1.2509 – unchanged from the premarket level.
  • NZDUSD: The NZD is the strongest of the major currency pairs today. It moved from 0.6515 at the time of the release to a new session high of 0.65359. We currently trade at 0.6526 up about 11 pips from the premarket level.
  • USDCAD: The USDCAD has seen more of a move lower compared to the other pairs. The price traded at 1.35905 at the time of the release and move down to a low of 1.3564. The pair currently trades at 1.3569, down 21 pips from the prerelease level.

The USDJPY tests 38.2% retracement and bounces

  
Analysis, Forex

Price doesn’t fall below upward sloping trendline and 100 hour moving average in the process

The USDJPY is trading lower on the day after a move above its 100 day moving average late yesterday and that the start of the new trading day faded.
Price doesn't fall below upward sloping trendline and 100 hour moving average in the process_
The 100 day moving average comes in at 107.878 today. The price moved above it in the last few hours of trading yesterday and extended to the highest level since June 9 at 108.158 before reversing lower. Buyers turned to sellers after breaking back below its 100 day moving average and trundled lower.
The fall took the price below an upward sloping trendline (currently at 107.56). And its 100 hour moving average at 107.426 currently (blue line in the chart above). However, the next target at the 38.2% retracement at 107.359, and recent swing highs from June 26 (at 107.346) and June 29 (at 107.367), stalled the fall. The low reached 107.355.
The price currently trades at 107.47 in this trying to hold support against its 100 hour moving average and the currently hourly bar.
If the price can hold that 100 hour moving average level, we could see a rotation back to the upside. If not getting below the 38.2% retracement is still a hurdle that needs to be surpassed. A correction to the 38.2% retracement is simply a plain-vanilla correction.
Overall some bearishness, but the bearishness has found a stall point at a corrective target. Getting below the 100 hour moving average and 38.2% retracement is still key for further downward momentum.

EUR/USD keeps higher to start the session, runs into test of key near-term levels

  
Analysis, Forex

EUR/USD buyers look to seize near-term control as the dollar keeps weaker

EUR/USD H1 29-06
The dollar is keeping lower to start the new week, despite the more tepid and slightly softer risk mood as we get things going in European morning trade today.
As the greenback gives back some of its gains from the latter half of last week, we’re seeing EUR/USD run back up to test key near-term resistance currently.
Buyers managed to push back above the 200-hour MA (blue line) @ 1.1241 and are now challenging the 100-hour MA (red line) @ 1.1256.
Keep below the 100-hour MA and the near-term bias stays more neutral, with price action to be more caught in between the two key hourly moving averages.
But break above the 100-hour MA and we will see buyers start to seize more near-term control and potentially look towards 1.1275-80 next before re-approaching 1.1300.
Considering the current risk mood, it is hard to see the pair push much higher as long as investors are looking to keep more cautious and defensive amid virus jitters.
The resurgence in US cases is starting to prompt renewed virus restrictions and new outbreaks being reported in the likes of Beijing, Tokyo, and Australia only adds to the concerns in the market over the past two weeks.
That said, month-end and quarter-end rebalancing flows are still something to consider – even if you would think most would have been settled by last week.
For now, the overall picture is that the dollar is weaker and the best we can do is to be guided by the technical levels highlighted above.

Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 29 June 2020

  
Analysis, Forex

Good morning, afternoon or evening to all ForexLive traders and welcome to the start of the new FX week.

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come on online … prices are liable to swing around on not too much at all, so take care out there.
Some small change from late Friday levels:
EUR/USD 1.1224
USD/JPY 107.11
GBP/USD 1.2343
USD/CHF 0.9475
USD/CAD 1.3669 AUD/USD 0.6860
NZD/USD 0.6416
I’ll be back soon with weekend news.
Meanwhile, it looks like the coronavirus situation in the is not getting much better.
  • Some LA County businesses have been ordered to close again.
  • The Governor of Texas says the infection has taken a swift an dangerous turn in the state
USD is touch better supported in the really early going here, AUD, kiwi, CAD down a few points.

CFTC Commitments of Traders: Yen longs and CAD shorts increase

  
Analysis, Forex

Forex futures positioning data for the week ending June 24, 2020:

  • EUR long 118K vs 117K long last week. Longs increased by 1K.
  • GBP short 19K vs 16K short last week. Shorts increased by 3K.
  • JPY long 27K vs 22K long last week. Longs increased by 5K.
  • CHF long 1K vs 2K long last week. Longs trimmed by 1K
  • AUD short 5k vs 7K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 2K
  • NZD short 0K vs 2K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 2K
  • CAD short 21k vs 25K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 4K
  • Prior week
There were big moves in the euro and Australian dollar last week. It’s interesting to note that AUD was the best performer this week, so cutting shorts was the right move for specs.
This week there’s a modest shift into risk-off trades like CAD/JPY shorts.

US dollar buying ebbs even with stocks touching a new low

  
Analysis, Forex

Dollar sellers arrive

Dollar selling has picked up after Europe closed for the week. USD/CAD is about 30 pips off the highs even with stocks near the lows.
Dollar sellers arrive
This could be FX leading a turn in the risk trade or it could be flows.
I’m sympathetic to the idea that the US can uniquely under-perform because the virus is hitting the US so much harder than other developed countries. The bond market is also weighing, with US 2-year yields down 2 bps to 0.16%.
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