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AUDUSD moves closer to its 200 week moving average

  
Analysis, Forex

200 week moving average currently at 0.72486

The AUDUSD is trading at new session highs up at 0.72378. That takes the price within about 11 pips of its 200 week moving average at 0.72486. Last week, the price moved above its 200 week moving average for the 1st time since April 2018, but could not sustain momentum. The high price moved to 0.72748 before failing and rotating back lower.
200 week moving average currently at 0.72486_
A move above should solicit more buying interest. A close above the level at the end of the week would be more bullish. Stay below could be indicative of a top/temporary top.
Key test for both the buyers and the sellers.

CFTC commitment of traders: EUR longs remain near record levels

  
Analysis, Forex

Weekly FX speculative positioning data from the CFTC

  • EUR long 197K vs 200K long last week. Longs trimmed by 3K
  • GBP long 7K vs 3k short last week. Positioned reversed to long.
  • JPY long 21K vs 27K long last week. Longs trimmed by 6K
  • CHF long 15K vs 17K long last week. Longs trimmed by 2K
  • AUD short 3K vs 1K short last week. Shorts increased by 2K
  • NZD 4K vs 0K short last week. Longs increased by 4K
  • CAD short 34k vs 30K short last week. Shorts increased by 4K
Highlights:
  • EUR longs where trimmed modestly from record levels last week
  • GBP position turned long after being short by 36K at the beginning of June 2020
  • AUD and NZD speculative positions remain near square
  • CAD shorts remain the largest short position and increased by 4K this week

CFTC commitment of traders: EUR longs increase to 200K (all time largest long position).

  
Analysis, Forex
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Weekly FX speculative positioning data from the CFTC

  • EUR long 200K vs 180K long last week. Longs increased by 20K
  • GBP short 3K vs 15K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 12K
  • JPY long 27K vs 31K long last week. Longs trimmed by 4K
  • CHF long 17K vs 12K long last week. Longs increase by 5K
  • AUD short 1K vs 1K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 4K
  • NZD 0K vs 1K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
  • CAD short 30k vs 23K short last week. Shorts increased by 6K
Highlights:
  • EUR longs continue to rise and are at new record long position at 200K. The largest short position all time is at -227K
  • GBP position has been whittled down to near unchanged after being short by 36K at the beginning of June 2020
  • AUD and NZD speculative positions are near unchanged
  • CAD shorts are the more or less, the only short currency position (long USD position).
Weekly FX speculative positioning data from the CFTC

Trade the strong against the weak

  
Analysis, Forex
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NZD

One of the key trading maxims in the FX world is pairing strength against weakness.If you need a refresher on that concept please do check that out here. So, yesterday we had the RBNZ rate meeting which has given us a weak NZD bias. Going into the event a client was asking me what I was going to do before the RBNZ rate meeting. The answer was simple, wait. Waiting to for the central bank to show its hand. The RBNZ has now done that and that is what gives us a bearish bias.Reasons for the RBNZ’s weaknessThe RBNZ has launched a set of bearish policies extending its asset purchases programme and showing openness to negative interest rates. They increased their quantitative easing (LSAP) programme to $100bn and extended its length from 12 to 22 months. Furthermore, the RBNZ expressed a preference for a lower or negative OCR and a ‘Funding for Lending Programme’, while leaving all options on the table.So, we now have a short to medium term NZD bearish bias, look to pair it with currencies as they show strength. Yesterday’s strong AUD employment data make AUDNZD longs appealing on pull backs.
NZD
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