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Little change among major currencies going into European trading

  
Analysis, Forex

Quieter tones prevail once again so far on the day

That said, risk sentiment is still rather soggy and that may fuel a bit more of a defensive tone as we look towards the start of European trading later.
FX
While FX is keeping in tighter ranges, US futures are down roughly 0.3% with 10-year Treasury yields keeping around 1.33% after the drop yesterday.
There was quite a bit of push and pull in the dollar overnight and that may yet keep the course as the market sorts itself out on the week. For today though, the ECB policy meeting will be a key risk event to watch for any moves.
EUR/USD is keeping around 1.1815-20 following the drop yesterday, with the 1.1800 level still holding though sellers are maintaining near-term control for now.

Dollar keeps firmer on softer risk tones in the market

  
Analysis, Forex

EUR/USD falls to a fresh one-week low

EUR/USD D1 08-09

The market is posturing more defensively in European trading and that is keeping the dollar and yen more bid so far on the session, with commodity currencies leading the way lower.
EUR/USD has dipped to a fresh one-week low, falling to 1.1826 with sellers now seizing near-term control on a break below its 200-hour moving average (blue line).

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US dollar extends further. It’s all about the ebb and flow today with a light calendar

  
Analysis, Forex

Today is the first day without extra unemployment benefits in the US

Today is the first day without extra unemployment benefits in the US
The market is in the mood to buy US dollars as New York and Toronto return from long weekends. That’s weighing on commodity prices as well and adding a negative mood to markets.
The dollar has extended to fresh highs against the euro and yen (shown above) in the past few minutes.
It will be all about the flows and technicals today with little scheduled news on the agenda. There’s no economic data today in the US or Canada. The lone notable event is a 3-year auction but sales that far up the curve rarely spill over into FX.
With that, it’s tough to find a reason to fade the dollar strength.

USD/CAD stifled by holidays but grinds lower as oil rebounds

  
Analysis, Forex

Canadian and US markets closed today

Canadian and US markets closed today
It’s a quiet one today in New York and Toronto but USD/CAD has had some life as it tracks a thinned oil market.
WTI fell as low as $68.25 but it’s grinded back to $69.41 and unchanged on the session. With that, USD/CAD rose up to 1.2559 but has slipped back to 1.2528.
In broader terms, the earlier US dollar strength is also fading aside from cable, which remains at session lows.

The USD falls vs all the major currencies this week except one

  
Analysis, Forex
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USD falls the most vs the NZD

The USD fell versus all the major currencies is weeks with the exception of one…the CHF.
USD falls the most vs the NZD
The US dollar fell the most versus the NZD and AUD as those currencies benefited from risk on sentiment, somewhat improving China and expectations that as Covid spread slows, central banks would start to look toward reversing some of the expansionary policy.
After trading sideways on Monday, the NZDUSD rose on each successive day this week.  The pair has risen 9 of the last 11 trading days.
Versus the AUDUSD, the pair was modestly lower on Monday, before also rising on each successive day this week.
For the USDCHF, last Friday, the pair closed near the low for the week.  After trying to extend lower early in the session on Monday, the pair moved sharply higher. That moment it was reversed on Tuesday before rallying up to the weeks high on Wednesday and moderating lower on Thursday and again today. Overall, the week was full of up and down price action with only an 88 pip trading range.

Aussie stretches gains to fresh highs in a month

  
Analysis, Forex

AUD/USD trades to a fresh one-month high of 0.7425

AUD/USD D1 03-09
Buyers are now looking to contest the 4 August high @ 0.7427 and are keeping poised in search of a firm break above the 0.7400 handle today.
The sentiment in the pair this week has been favourable for the aussie and the overall view on the pair remains unchanged from yesterday:
For now, the technicals are supportive for the aussie against the dollar and it points towards a potential test of 0.7400 again, where upside momentum stalled previously during July and August trading.As such, that offers a key line in the sand for buyers to contest in order to establish any fresh upside leg while sellers will have to defend that to hold their ground.As things stand, the dollar side of the equation is a key consideration this week with the US non-farm payrolls release tomorrow today a key risk event.That will set the tone towards the end of the week but a poor jobs report may yet spur a fresh break for AUD/USD to the upside back towards 0.7500 potentially.Otherwise, we may see more of a middling tone ahead of the weekend with 0.7400 capping gains with downside limited closer to key near-term levels at 0.7275 0.7300 and 0.7316 0.7344.
As highlighted above, a lot depends on the US non-farm payrolls release later today to validate or invalidate the latest push higher in the pair.
But for now, aussie buyers are certainly showing that they are more than ready to capitalise on a poor report and secure a fresh upside break towards 0.7500.

Dollar still middling so far on the session

  
Analysis, Forex

Major currencies see ranges stretch but nothing too significant

Commodity currencies still hold a slight lead on the day with the yen and franc the laggard, as risk tones are keeping more positive so far in European morning trade.
European indices are posting solid gains with S&P 500 futures and Dow futures also up 0.4%, while Nasdaq futures are up 0.1% on the session so far.
That said, FX isn’t really moving all too much with AUD/USD still keeping a slight advance of 0.3% around 0.7330-40 for the most part. Meanwhile, NZD/USD is off earlier highs of 0.7065 and is trading around 0.7050 currently – up just 6 pips on the day.
Elsewhere, EUR/USD is still napping somewhat as it trades in and around 1.1800, now seen at 1.1813 after trading around the lows earlier at 1.1795.
USD/JPY is perhaps the most notable mover as the pair extends a push above 110.00 to 110.30 with the high today touching 110.41 earlier:
USD/JPY D1 01-09
Buyers are keeping a defense of the 100-day moving average (red line) and the trendline support, with price now up to its highest since 13 August.
A test of light offers closer to 110.50 is on the cards with further resistance seen closer to the daily highs in the region of 110.60-80.
That said, any major upside extension may require Treasury yields to conform and 10-year yields have settled down a little after an earlier push above 1.33%, now keeping closer to 1.315% in mid-morning in Europe.
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