Archives of “Education” category
rssLong-term interest rates are at all-time lows for the last 5,000 years.
The worst 10-year periods for the S&P 500.
Great advice from Darvas ‘You Can Still Make It In The Market’
On this day in 1996: Apple cover story “The Fall Of An American Icon.”
This is pure gold.
Jeff Bezos on decision making:
Tech domination in global equity markets
The Trader and the Trading System Must Meet
- Systems don’t need to be changed. The trick is for a trader to develop a system with which he is compatible.
- My original system was very simple with hard-and-fast rules that didn’t allow for any deviations. I found it
difficult to stay with the system while disregarding my own feelings. I kept jumping on and off—often at just the wrong time. I thought I knew better than the system. - Also, it seemed a waste of my intellect and MIT education to just sit there and not try to figure out the markets.
- Eventually, as I became more confident of trading with the trend, and more able to ignore the news, I became more comfortable with the approach. Also, as I continued to incorporate more “expert trader rules,” my system became more compatible with my trading style.
- As I keep trading and learning, my system (that is the mechanical computer version of what I do) keeps evolving.
- Over time, I have become more mechanical, since (1) I have become more trusting of trend trading, and (2)
my mechanical programs have factored in more and more “tricks of the trade.” I still go through periods of thinking I can outperform my own system, but such excursions are often self-correcting through the process of losing money. - I don’t think traders can follow rules for very long unless they reflect their own trading style. Eventually, a breaking point is reached and the trader has to quit or change, or find a new set of rules he can follow. This seems to be part of the process of evolution and growth of a trader.
- A trading system is an agreement you make between yourself and the markets.
Basic Factors in Evaluating a Trading System
Statistics
- Win rate
- Average winner / Average loser
- Profit factor (gross winnings / gross losses)
- Number of consecutive losers (needs to match with your psychological ability to handle)
- Expectancy (i.e. P/L of an average trade)
- Maximum drawdown
- Annual return
- t-statistic > 2
Robustness
- Markets: The system should be tested across all market environments, e.g. bull, bear, choppy, etc. Performance should preferably be consistent across all environments.
- Outliers: Is a significant chunk of the performance attributable to a just few trades or a particular market? or is the P/L across trades fairly consistent?
- Costs: Slippage and commission deducted?
- Logic: Are all signals immediately executable? e.g. limit moves might not allow execution
System Details
- How many rules and variables are there in the system? Beware of over-optimization.