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The Trader and the Trading System Must Meet

  • Systems don’t need to be changed. The trick is for a trader to develop a system with which he is compatible.
  • My original system was very simple with hard-and-fast rules that didn’t allow for any deviations. I found it
    difficult to stay with the system while disregarding my own feelings. I kept jumping on and off—often at just the wrong time. I thought I knew better than the system.
  • Also, it seemed a waste of my intellect and MIT education to just sit there and not try to figure out the markets.
  • Eventually, as I became more confident of trading with the trend, and more able to ignore the news, I became more comfortable with the approach. Also, as I continued to incorporate more “expert trader rules,” my system became more compatible with my trading style.
  • As I keep trading and learning, my system (that is the mechanical computer version of what I do) keeps evolving.
  • Over time, I have become more mechanical, since (1) I have become more trusting of trend trading, and (2)
    my mechanical programs have factored in more and more “tricks of the trade.” I still go through periods of thinking I can outperform my own system, but such excursions are often self-correcting through the process of losing money.
  • I don’t think traders can follow rules for very long unless they reflect their own trading style. Eventually, a breaking point is reached and the trader has to quit or change, or find a new set of rules he can follow. This seems to be part of the process of evolution and growth of a trader.
  • A trading system is an agreement you make between yourself and the markets.

Basic Factors in Evaluating a Trading System

Statistics

  • Win rate
  • Average winner / Average loser
  • Profit factor (gross winnings / gross losses)
  • Number of consecutive losers (needs to match with your psychological ability to handle)
  • Expectancy (i.e. P/L of an average trade)
  • Maximum drawdown
  • Annual return
  • t-statistic > 2

Robustness

  • Markets: The system should be tested across all market environments, e.g. bull, bear, choppy, etc. Performance should preferably be consistent across all environments.
  • Outliers: Is a significant chunk of the performance attributable to a just few trades or a particular market? or is the P/L across trades fairly consistent?
  • Costs: Slippage and commission deducted?
  • Logic: Are all signals immediately executable? e.g. limit moves might not allow execution

System Details

  • How many rules and variables are there in the system? Beware of over-optimization.
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