• Tendency to overvalue wagers involving a low probability of a high gain and to undervalue wagers involving a relatively high probability of low gain.
• Tendency to interpret the probability of successive independent events as additive rather than multiplicative.
• Belief that after a run of successes, a failure is mathematically inevitable, and vice versa (aka Monte Carlo fallacy).
• Perception that a favorable event has higher probability over an unfavorable event even though their mathematical probability is the same.
• Tendency to overestimate the frequency of occurrence of infrequent events and to underestimate that of comparatively frequent ones after observing a series of randomly generated events.
• Confuse the occurrence of “unusual” events with the occurrence of low-probability events (e.g. getting 13 spades is just as probable as getting any other hand).

• Investing – Getting an adequate return in the form of dividends, interest, or rent, while expecting safety in principal
• Trading – Making a market, trying to stay net flat and makes money by extracting the bid-ask spread
• Speculating – Buying for resale rather than for use or income, expecting capital appreciation
• Betting – Trying to be right
• Gambling – Trying to get excitement

Weekly US initial jobless claims