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South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2019 was the worst since the GFC

  
Analysis, Economy

South Korean economic growth data for the January  – March quarter of 2019

GDP (sa) -0.3% q/q (expected +0.3% q/q)

  • worst since Q4 of 2008

+1.8 % for the y/y (vs. expected of +2.5%)

  • slowest since Q3 of 2009

Private consumption (sa) +0.1% q/q

  • slowest since Q1 2016

Construction investment (sa) -0.1 % q/q

Facility investment (sa) -10.8% q/q

  • worst since Q1 1998

Its not surprising growth is slow in Korea (well, negative q/q), what with the trade wars and such. But, yeah, these are horrible numbers.

South Korean economic growth data for the January  - March quarter of 2019 

China officials endorse Goldilocks monetary policy

  
Analysis, Economy

Chinese press, Xinhua, citing a report from the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission

  • “Monetary policy needs to be neither too tight, nor too loose and should be fine-tuned in a timely and pre-emptive way based on economic growth and changes in price situations’
Thanks so much for that.
  • The policy comments from the financial commission meeting largely echoed those from meetings of China’s Politburo, the State Council and the central bank in the past two weeks

ICYMI – Trump tightens the screws on Iran’s oil exports

  
Analysis, Crude, Economy

The US announced Monday that buyers of Iranian oil must stop doing so by May 1 or face sanctions.

Adam posted the breaking news yesterday:
  •  US will announce complete cutoff to Iran oil exports on Monday – report
Nice timing! With most traders on holidays Adam’s eagle eye allowed those still active in markets to get on board for a nice up move.
In brief:
  • US  will not renew exemptions granted in November last year to buyers of Iranian oil
  • This is a surprise move
  • Countries such as China and India had been granted waivers for six months, and expected those exemptions to be renewed. Nope.
The US announced Monday that buyers of Iranian oil must stop doing so by May 1 or face sanctions.

US housing starts for March 1139K vs 1225K estimate

  
Analysis, Economy

US housing starts for March from the Census Bureau

  • Prior month report
  • Housing starts prior month 1162K revised to 1142K
  • Housing starts -0.3% vs 5.4% exp
  • 6- month average 1189K
  • Building permits 1269K vs 1300K exp
  • Building permits prior 1291K unrevised at 1291K
  • Permits -1.7% vs 0.7% exp
  • Midwest starts fell -17.6%
  • West rose 31.4%
  • Single family starts fell -0.4% and permits were down -1.1%
  • Multi family was unchanged after falling -2.7% last month
Housing starts fall

The BOJ has cut the amount of 10-25 year JGBs purchased at today’s operation

  
Analysis, Economy

A reduction in its purchases in the 10 to 25 years remaining until maturity window.

160bn yen compared with 180bn last time around.
The last time the BOJ did similar was about 8 weeks ago.
Also a smaller purchase amount in 25 – 40 year window. 40bn yen vs. 50bn previous.
When the BOJ first reduced buying like this we saw a knee jerk yen strengthen, the reaction has diminished when they have done so recently though.
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