Archives of “Economy” category

rss

Japan Balance of Payment Current Account for August

  
Analysis, Economy

Despite trade woes Japan has inflows from offshore investments.

BoP Current Account Balance Y 2157.7bn

  •  expected Y 2069.5bn, prior Y 1999.9bn

BoP Current Account Adjusted 1720.3bn yen

  • expected Y 1682.1bn, prior Y 1647.1bn

Trade Balance BoP basis 50.9bn yen

  • expected Y 34.6bn, prior Y -74.5bn
As I said in the preview of today’s economic calendar none of the Japanese data was likely to move the yen too much. Which is not an out on a limb forecast by any stretch, I’ll admit. Anyway, yeah. yen barely moving so far. 10 point range or so.

US Q2 GDP third reading 2.0% vs 2.0% expected

  
Analysis, Economy
  Tags

The third look at Q2 2019 GDP:

  • Initial reading was +2.1%
  • Second reading was 2.0%
  • Q1 was 3.2%
  • Q4 was 1.1%
  • GDP y/y 2.3% vs 2.3% in 2nd estimate

Details:

  • Personal consumption 4.6% vs 4.7% in 2nd reading
  • Initial personal consumption +4.3%
  • Consumer spending on durables +13.0% vs +13.0% in 2nd reading
  • Business investment -1.0% vs -0.6% in 2nd reading
  • Home investment -3.0% vs -2.9% in 2nd reading
  • Exports -5.7% vs -5.8% in 2nd reading
  • Imports 0.0% vs +0.1% in 2nd reading
  • Trade cut 0.68 pp from growth rather than 0.72 pp in 2nd reading
  • Corporate profits +3.7% vs +5.1% in 2nd reading

Inflation:

  • GDP price index 2.4% vs 2.4% in 2nd reading
  • Prior GDP price index 1.1%
  • Core PCE 1.9% vs 1.7% in 2nd reading
  • Prior core PCE 1.1%
  • GDP deflator 2.6% vs +2.5% in 2nd reading
The three notable changes are all highlighted. Business investment was even worse than believed and inflation was higher. The revision lower in business investment made it the worst quarter by that metric since Q4 2015.
A big drag on business investment was investment in structures, which fell at an 11.1% pace.

China Beige Book says the country’s economy the weakest it has been all year in Q3

  
Analysis, Economy
#  #  #  #  #

China’s economy at its weakest for the year, CBB saying manufacturing, property and the services sectors all worsening

  • lending has increased
  • current weakness in the economy is primarily due to manufacturing
  • drop in exports a factor
  • most of the decline was due to “considerably slower sales price growth
Bloomberg with the report.
—
China Beige Book adapts methodology used by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s “Beige Book”
  • It’s a privately produced quarterly report
  • Uses quantitative & qualitative data to track conditions within the Chinese economy
Go to top