Archives of “Economy” category

rss

Germany April ZEW survey current situation -91.5 vs -77.5 expected

  
Analysis, Economy

Latest data released by ZEW – 21 April 2020

  • Prior -43.1
  • Expectations 28.2 vs -42.0 expected
  • Prior -49.5
  • Eurozone expectations 25.2
  • Prior -49.5
Despite the headline reading falling sharply, the thing that stands out is that investor sentiment shows that there is hope as market participants see light at the end of the tunnel.
Both German and Eurozone expectations rebounded strongly, but ZEW is quick to note that those surveyed do not expect positive economic growth until Q3 at least. Adding that economic output is not expected to return to pre-virus levels before 2022.

EU’s Gentiloni: €1.5 trillion worth of aid could be necessary to deal with virus fallout

  
Analysis, Economy

Comments by European commissioner for the economy, Paolo Gentiloni

Comments by Gentiloni to German magazine, Der Spiegel:

“The Eurogroup has now made proposals for aid worth more than €500 billion to finance healthcare and short-time work and to help small and medium-sized companies. That leaves at least one trillion euros. This is roughly the amount we need to be dealing with now.”

He also adds that the funds could be raised via the next annual budget.

Most Japanese firms say govt’s $1 trillion coronavirus stimulus too little, too late

  
Analysis, Economy

Reuters polling of Japanese combines:

  • 46% of Japanese firms say govt’s $1 trln coronavirus stimulus somewhat not enough,
  • 29% see it quite insufficient
  • 56% see output, sales down due to coronavirus impact, 40% seen unchanged
  • 33% say coronavirus impact to last several months; 60% say it will be even more prolonged
  • 59% say supply chains affected by pandemic

Reuters corporate survey

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe last week declared a state of emergency for Tokyo and six other prefectures
  • Announced an economic stimulus package equal to around 20% of economic output
  • 108 trillion yen ($1 trillion) package includes cash payouts worth more than 6 trillion yen to households and small and midsize firms

Japan data – Reuters Tankan (April) – business sentiment hits fresh decade lows

  
Analysis, Economy

Reuters monthly Tankan is aimed at tracing the quarterly BOJ report of the same name

Japan manufacturers index -30 in April vs -20 in march (manufacturers’ index hits lowest level since Oct 2009)

  • Non-manufacturers index -23 in April vs -10 in march (lowest level since Feb. 2010)

Manufacturers July index seen at -47, non-manufacturers -44

China trade balance data for March, exports down 3.5% y/y (yuan terms)

  
Analysis, Economy

China data, the trade balance reported for January to March inclusive is 98.3bn yuan surplus

  • China trade balance for March alone is surplus of 130bn yuan (via Reuters calculation): expected CNY 158.5bn
  • Exports -3.5% y/y: expected -12.8%
  • Imports +2.4% y/y: expected -7.0%

For Q1:

  • exports -11.4% y/y
  • imports -0.7% y/y
Cina customs bureau commetns:
  • global economy faces mounting downward pressure
  • uncertainties are on the rise
  • China’s foreign trade is encountering bigger difficulties
Go to top