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OECD GDP projections

  
Analysis, Economy

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
OECD was founded in 1961 to stimulate world trade and economic progress. Their latest GDP projections for this year and the next. China alone to keep in positive territory amongst the big players.
  • World GDP -4.5%, 2021 +5%
  • US GDP -3.8%, 2012+4.0%
  • Chinese GDP +1.8%, 2021 +8%
  • Euro area GDP -7.9%, 2021 +5.1%
  • Japan GDP -5.8%, 2021 +1.5%
  • UK GDP-10.1%, +7.6%

Japan data – trade balance for August: Y 248.3bn (expected Y -15.0bn)

  
Analysis, Economy

Japan trade balance for August Y 248.3bn

  • expected Y -15.0bn, prior Y 10.9bn

Trade balance adjusted Y 650.6bn

  • expected Y 23.3bn, prior Y -34.8bn

Exports -14.8% y/y

  • expected -16.1% y/y, prior -19.2%

Imports -20.8% y/y

  • expected -17.8% y/y, prior -22.3%

Exports fell but not by as much as expected. Imports fell by more than expected. Net result is a trade surplus, a deficit was expected.

The y/y fall in exports brings the run of consecutive monthly falls to 21.

ECB forecasts said to show more confidence in the economic outlook

  
Analysis, Economy

Leak from the ECB forecasts from Bloomberg boosts the euro

Some ECB policy makers have become more confident in their forecasts, according to a Bloomberg report citing people familiar.
The latest projections — due tomorrow — will show only slight changes to June with GDP revised higher this year on higher private consumption.
With that, there is a falling chance of further stimulus this year; but that will depend on December forecasts.
The euro rallied to 1.1820 from 1.1780 on the headlines but there isn’t much here. A slight increase in forecasts is no surprise given strong retail sales data.
eurusd chart

Eurozone Q2 final GDP -11.8% vs -12.1% q/q second reading

  
Analysis, Economy

Latest data released by Eurostat – 8 September 2020

  • GDP -14.7% vs -15.0% y/y second reading
  • Household consumption -12.4% vs -12.2% q/q expected
  • Prior -4.7%; revised to -4.5%
  • Government spending -2.6% vs -2.5% q/q expected
  • Prior -0.4%; revised to -0.7%
  • Employment -2.9% q/q
The second reading can be found here. The mildly higher revision is little consolation as this just reaffirms the biggest slump in the euro area economy on record. The market is more focused on the recovery phase now so this data release means little.
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