Latest data released by ZEW – 11 May 2021
- Prior -48.8
- Expectations 84.4 vs 72.0 expected
- Prior 70.7
- Eurozone expectations 84.0
- Prior 66.3
Archives of “Economy” category
rssChina CPI and PPI data (for April) is on the schedule for today – preview
Coming up at 0130 GMT, China inflation figures for April
- China CPI expected 1.0% y/y, prior 0.4%
- PPI expected 6.5% y/y, prior 4.4%
Quite the divergence in expectations. The PPI is ramping higher on the back of the surging prices of commodities
- copper, tin, iron ore, plastics prices to producers in China (and elsewhere of course) have risen to the highest in a decade
- supply constraints are a factor on this, along with rocketing demand
The impact on downstream pricing is lagging, hence the much expectations for the CPI. Much lower pork prices is a key holding down consumer inflation in China.
The data release is unlikely to impact major FX rates too much (barring any shock results).
Relative price of housing in the US
Economic mobility in several countries.
Eurozone April final manufacturing PMI 62.9 vs 63.3 prelim
Latest data released by Markit – 3 May 2021
The preliminary report can be found here. A slightly softer revision but the headline is still a record high reading as the manufacturing sector in the region continues to hold up strongly despite the virus situation and tighter restrictions since Q1.
Output and new orders are holding close to record highs seen in March while input cost inflation is seen ticking higher once again, which should feed back into higher consumer price inflation over the coming months. Markit notes that:
“Eurozone manufacturing is booming, with a new PMI record set for a second month running in April. The past two months have seen output and order books both improve at rates unsurpassed since the survey began in 1997, with surging demand boosted by economies opening up from COVID-19 lockdowns and brightening prospects for the year ahead.
“However, supply constraints are also running at unprecedented levels, leading to a record build-up of uncompleted orders at factories.
“The consequence of demand running ahead of supply is higher prices being charged by manufacturers, which are now also rising at the fastest rate ever recorded by the survey.
“The big uncertainty is how long these upward price pressures will persist for, and the extent to which these higher charges for goods and services will feed-though to consumers.
“Encouragement comes from the sharp increase in employment and investment in machinery and equipment signalled by the survey, which suggests firms are scaling up capacity to meet resurgent demand. This should help bring supply and demand more into line, taking some pressure off prices. But this will inevitably take time.”
Biden’s $4 Trillion Economic Plan in One Chart
Italy Q1 preliminary GDP -0.4% vs -0.5% q/q expected
Latest data released by Istat – 30 April 2021
- Prior -1.9%; revised to -1.8%
Germany Q1 preliminary GDP -1.7% vs -1.5% q/q expected
Latest data released by Destatis – 30 April 2021
- Prior +0.3%
- GDP (non-seasonally adjusted) -3.3% vs -3.6% y/y expected
- Prior -2.7%
- GDP (working day adjusted) -3.0% vs -3.2% y/y expected
- Prior -3.7%
The readings are more or less within estimates as German economic activity contracted once again in Q1, though the resilience of the manufacturing sector has certainly helped to offset a chunk of the slump amid lockdown measures to start the year.
The details reveal that Q1 GDP was some 4.9% lower than levels seen in Q4 2019.
China Industrial Profits data for March: +92.3% y/y (prior +20.1% y/y)
China Industrial Profits reported at +92.3% y/y by the newswires.
There is a large ‘base effect’ component to this, March 2020 saw China plunged into lockdown.
For the YTD (January – March) comes in at +137% y/y (prior +178.9%)
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Later this week we’ll get the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs for April from China.
more to come
Reminder – Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting decision due Tuesday 27 April 2021
The really quick preview of this is no change to any of the major policy planks is expected.
The thing to watch will be the updated forecasts in the ‘Outlook Report’ that’ll be published at the same time as the decision Statement. I popped up a preview of this yesterday:
- Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting concludes Tuesday 27 April 2021 – preview
Note that there is no firmly scheduled time for the Bank of Japan announcement, expect it somewhere in the 0230 to 0330 GMT time window.
Governor Kuroda press conference follows at 0630GMT:
