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BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 0.75%; votes 0-0-9

BOE announces its latest monetary policy decision – 21 March 2019

  • Prior 0.75%
  • Official bank rate votes 0-0-9 vs 0-0-9 expected
  • Asset purchase target £435 billion
  • Corporate bond target £10 billion
Here’s the statement details:
  • Underlying inflation broadly on track with forecast
  • Employment growth could now moderate significantly
  • Brexit could prompt policy moves in either direction
  • Gradual, limited tightening still probably needed
  • Monetary response to Brexit is not automatic and could be in either direction
  • Brexit uncertainties continue to weigh on confidence, short-term economic activity
Nothing too significant from the BOE here as the main talking point remains about Brexit and the central bank pretty much still has its hands tied as the Brexit saga continues to play out. The only way the BOE is able to decide on things is if the Brexit fog clears, and that doesn’t appear like it will happen any time soon.
The pound is relatively unchanged from the decision and statement here. Cable still sits at the lows for the day now at 1.3112.

Japanese government downgrades its economic assessment for the month of March

First downgrade in three years

Japan

In its latest monthly economic report, the Japanese government downgraded its view of the economy for the first time since 2016; citing recent weakness in exports and industrial production.

The Cabinet office states that the economy is in a gradual recovery but exports and output are showing signs of weakness. This will surely raise some eyebrows ahead of the proposed sales tax hike in October.
If the economy is already facing problems, can the Japanese government risk the possibility of pushing it towards another technical recession?

Eurozone January trade balance €17.0 billion vs €15.0 billion expected

Latest data released by Eurostat – 18 March 2019

  • Prior €15.6 billion; revised to €16.0 billion
  • Non-seasonally adjusted trade balance €1.5 billion
  • Prior €17.0 billion
Exports rose by 0.8% m/m while imports were also up by 0.3% m/m, so that will offer some good news for the overall Eurozone trade outlook; though this is January data only. Trade to the US is seen at a surplus of €11.5 billion and that is higher than the €10.1 billion recorded in January 2018. Can you say tariffs?

Japan trade balance data for February: Y 339.0bn (vs. expected Y 305.1bn)

Japan trade balance data for February

Trade balance Y 339.0bn for a big beat … but both exports and imports have missed.
  • expected Y 305.1bn, prior was Y -1415.6bn
Trade balance (adjusted) Y 116.1bn
  • expected Y 80.6bn, prior was Y -370bn
Exports -1.2% y/y for a miss but not as poor a performance as January
  • expected -0.6%, prior was -8.4%
Imports -6.7% y/y
  • expected -6.4%, prior was -0.8%
More:
Exports to the US +2% y/y
  • to China +5.5% y/y
  • to Asia -1.8% y/y
  • to the EU +2.5% y/y
more to come

China, US said to delay Trump-Xi meeting to … now its June!

Last week thw word was the summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping was to be pushed into April.

Now its looking like it’ll be June instead, South China Morning Post reporting citing unnamed sources.
(SCMP article from the weekend).
Likely indicative of continued wrangling over the trade deal. 90 Days wasn’t long enough? Who’da thunk it?
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