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China: There have been new progress in negotiating text of trade deal with US

Some positive headlines for risk at least

  • China and US still conducting talks on trade deal text
  • “Plenty of work” still remaining with US on trade deal
Okay, the follow up comments aren’t so optimistic. Sure, both sides are still progressing towards some semblance of a deal but that is already largely priced in by markets. The fact that they mention that there is still “plenty of work” to be done means we will still have to put this on ice for the time being.

Haven flows dominate as poor Eurozone economic data reignite global growth worries

10-year bund yields slump by 5 bps to just 0.03% now

Germany 10-year bond yields

The sluggish data from Germany and overall Eurozone PMIs are spreading jitters across markets as haven flows start to dominate once again. 10-year bund yields are down by 5 bps to 0.03% while Treasury yields are seen slumping by 4.5 bps to 2.548% currently.
And in the currencies space, that is helping to keep the likes of the dollar, yen and swissie bid on the day. All major currencies are close to session lows currently against the three currencies mentioned as haven/risk-off flows start to dominate proceedings.
According to Markit, they view that the Eurozone economy should only grow by 0.2% in Q1 2019. That’s really awful and it is just going to spread more fear on global growth worries.

Eurozone April flash manufacturing PMI 47.8 vs 48.0 expected

Latest data released by Markit – 18 April 2019

  • Prior 47.5
  • Services PMI 52.5 vs 53.1 expected
  • Prior 53.3
  • Composite PMI 51.3 vs 51.8 expected
  • Prior 51.6
Ouch, these readings are certainly not helping with euro sentiment. Manufacturing is a slight miss on expectations but the services and composite readings overall are softer than expectations and also softer compared to the March readings.
EUR/USD is being dragged lower on the release here to 1.1254 with the dollar and yen staying bid as a result of haven flows. Bund yields and Treasury yields are sinking, resulting in the more risk-off tone as we begin the session.

More China stimulus on the way? Rumours say yes.

An ICYMI on reports yesterday that China is planning further stimulus.

Take care, sources are unnamed. But hey, rumours and financial markets are never separated for too long!
Bloomberg report:
  • Officials are drafting measures to bolster sales of cars and electronics
The proposals
  • include subsidies for new-energy vehicles, smartphones and home appliances
  • are at a consultation stage with other government branches, with no guarantee that they’ll be approved, the people said.

Link for more. 

Japan Nikkei Manufacturing PMI for April, preliminary: 49.5 (prior 49.2)

The flash reading for this, with the ‘final’ to follow on May 7

Comes in at 49.5
  • an improvement from March’s 49.2
  • still below 50, thus still showing contraction
In the sub measures, the new export index fell at its fastest pace in 3years.
  • to 47.1 (from March’s 48.1)
  • Trade tensions and weaker offshore demand a factor here of course.
 The employment index is higher, at 52.2 (prior 51.4)
Yen has been sleepy the whole morning here so far. A circa 10 point range only for USD/JPY.

Heads up: Eurozone flash PMI survey data for April is due tomorrow

uro traders will keep focus on PMI data in the day to come

  • France PMIs: 0715 GMT
  • Germany PMIs: 0730 GMT
  • Eurozone PMIs: 0800 GMT
The last time around, Germany’s manufacturing sector disappointed in quite remarkable fashion and that led to the euro stumbling and falling thereafter. Will we get more of the same kind of surprise tomorrow? Only time will tell.
Green shoots are appearing in recent Eurozone economic data and that has helped to see the long-term market gauge of Eurozone inflation expectations rise to a three-week high of 1.40% today. While at the same time, the euro has recovered some ground since the end of last week with EUR/USD sticking near 1.1300 this week as resistance around 1.1325-30 still proves to be a tough task for buyers to break above.
EUR/USD vs EUR 5Y inflation
However, large expiries at 1.1300 and swing region resistance around 1.1325-30 are likely to keep price action limited on the day. But expect plenty more volatility to come about upon the release of the data tomorrow. Also, do take note that most markets are closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday so expect some position squaring ahead of the weekend to be done tomorrow too.

Germany cuts 2019 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% from 1.0%

It’s finally official now

Germany

  • Expects economy to rebound in 2020, GDP growth forecast of 1.5%
  • Says trade disputes and Brexit are weighing on German growth
  • Sees inflation at 1.5% in 2019 and 1.8% in 2020
  • Expects export growth of 2.0% in 2019 and 1.8% in 2020
  • Expects import growth of 3.8% in 2019 and 4.0% in 2020
This has been long rumoured for the past week already but the headline is finally made official. Still, any confirmation isn’t really good news as the risk here is that we could see potential further downgrades if the economy doesn’t pick up.
For some context, the German government already slashed its forecast in January from 1.8% to 1.0% before the revision here.

Japan trade balance for March: Y 528.5bn (expected Y 363.2bn)

March 2019 trade balance from Japan, exports held down by trade wars

Trade balance: Y 528.5bn
  • expected Y 363.2bn, prior was Y 334.9bn
Trade balance (adjusted): Y -177.8bn
  •  expected Y -242.5bn, prior was Y 116.1bn
Exports -2.4% y/y:, not quite as bad as expected
  • expected -2.6%, prior was -1.2%
Imports +1.1% y/y, a miss
  • expected 2.8%, prior was -6.7%
Yen unresponsive. What else is new?

Greek debt touches lowest yield since 2005

Greek bond yields hit their lowest in nearly 14 years, highlighting a comeback for the country that was the focal point of the debt crisis that crippled the eurozone a decade ago.

The benchmark 10-year yield fell 3 basis points to 3.274 per cent, its lowest since September 16 2005. Historically, Greek debt has attracted lower volumes of trade than other eurozone countries.

Greece last month sold its first 10-year bond in nine years, raising €2.5bn of paper prices at a 3.9 per cent yield. Order books topped €11.8bn.

The country has entered a “period of economic growth that puts it among the top performers in the eurozone”, an IMF March report said. The fund projects real gross domestic product growth of 2.4 per cent for 2019.

A broad rally in the sovereign debt market last month pushed the equivalent German bund yield negative for the first time since 2016.

A deal to repay IMF loans is imminent, Reuters reported on Monday, citing the words of a senior official. The official said on Friday that Greece was hoping to strike a deal over the weekend to repay about half of the loans early as it seeks to lower its debt-servicing costs.

Sentiment towards Greece however remained somewhat muted on Monday.

“The economy has returned to growth but is not as dynamic as had been hoped,” said Oxford Economics on Monday. “However, unless Greece can kick-start the economy and significantly expand its narrow tax base, it will remain trapped in a high-debt/low-growth environment. This almost guarantees the official creditors a firm grip on Greece’s economic affairs.”

Reuters, citing unnamed sources, reported that Greece is planning a bond issue in June to raise money for the repayment.

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