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Saudi oil minister says OPEC+ deal extension possible to end of the year

Comments by Saudi oil minister, Khalid Al-Falih

OPEC
  • Says Saudi Arabia won’t exceed its OPEC+ deal output limit
I reckon markets are already anticipating that this would happen but no doubt official confirmation next month and in June could potentially still give oil prices a brief lift. The bigger question now will be, is Russia on board with this? That will be a key area to watch over the next few weeks.

IMF: Saudi Arabia needs oil at $85 to balance budget

IMF projects a higher budget deficit for Saudi Arabia in 2019

They see the kingdom posting budget deficit of 7.9% of GDP this year and that is notably higher than the 4.6% budget deficit seen in 2018. IMF notes that in order for the kingdom to balance its budget, oil must move towards $85 at least.

Well, Saudi Arabia is already trying to get it up to $80 with their lack of conviction in responding to Iran sanctions so…

Challenge accepted

Oil – Kuwait voicing concern over threats to close the Strait of Hormuz

Kuwait’s deputy foreign minister with some alarm prior to oil markets getting active this new week.

  • Says the country is looking at threats orehere  heref closing Strait of Hormuz with concern
  • Hopes to distance region from this tension
This is in relation to Iran expressing intent to close the Strait. This has been ongoing, accelerating in past days. Iran once again threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. The US have demanded buyers of Iranian oil stop purchases by May or face sanctions.
Oil markets and the Straits of Hormuz Iran US conflict.

An Update :Dollar Index ,Euro ,JPY ,AUD ,INR ,GBP ,CAD ,Brent ,WTI ,SPX ,Nasdaq Composite ,DJIA ,Shanghai Composite -ANIRUDH SETHI

By all reckoning, the US dollar had a good week.  It rose against nearly all the major currencies, and against many broke out of recent ranges.  Ironically, the dollar gains more mostly scored before the surprisingly strong Q1 GDP print of 3.2%.  In fact, all the major currencies but the Norwegian krone recouped some of their recent losses ahead of the weekend.  Nokkie appeared to have been weighed down by the biggest drop in oil prices in a couple of months after setting six-month highs earlier in the week after the US announced it was not going to renew any waivers that exempted a handful of countries from the embargo against Iran.
Some purists argue that just like space has a shape so does nature.  Technical analysis is about uncovering these shapes in prices.  Fibonacci relationships exist in nature, for example,  they can be found in the markets too.  Another school argues that technical analysis is a study of group psychology.  Individuals may learn, but groups apparently do not, and behavior (patterns) are often repeated.  Two elements of market psychology have percolated into pop culture.
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Iraq oil minister says committed to OPEC production cut deal

Further positive commentary for oil if nothing else

  • Keen to keep prices stable and oil markets well supplied
  • Will monitor markets to assess the needs at the next OPEC meeting
Iraq has always been seen as a wildcard in the OPEC+ deal talks but the headline comment will at least provide some relief that they’re not planning to stage a mini-coup in the upcoming talks in mid-May. Oil is trading higher today by 0.3% to $66.10 currently with Brent gaining by nearly 1% above $75 at the moment.

Gulf OPEC producers can lift output but only if there is enough demand – report

OPEC and industry sources cited

  • Gulf producers can raise output following US sanctions on Iran but only if there is enough demand, according to OPEC sources cited by Reuters
  • Saudi Arabian oil output may be higher in May than April but that’s not related to Iran sanctions and it will be within the OPEC production target range.
There’s been a small uptick in oil.
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