Archives of “Crude” category

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Russia’s Novak says G20 may offer more clarity to OPEC+ before meeting next week

  
Analysis, Crude

Comments by Russian energy minister, Alexander Novak

In his words:
“The market is currently in a very interesting phase. On one hand, it seems balanced in terms of supply and demand. But on the other hand, there are so many uncertainties. We hope that there will be more clarity and more visibility after the G20 summit in Osaka.”
Adding that he expects oil producers to take a ‘balanced decision’ when they meet on 1-2 July next week. If anything else, this doesn’t sound like someone who is particularly prepared to continue with the current production cuts deal – not like they were contributing much to it in the first place anyway.

EIA weekly US crude oil inventories -12788K vs -2873K expected

  
Analysis, Crude

Weekly US energy inventories and production data from the EIA:

  • Prior was -3106K
  • Gasoline -996K vs 0K expected
  • Distillates -2441K vs +100K exp
  • Refinery utilization +0.3% vs +0.5% exp
  • Production 12.1 mbpd vs 12.2 mbpd prior
API numbers released late yesterday:
  • Crude -7550K
  • Cushing -1260K
  • Gasoline -3170K
  • Distillates -160K
That’s the largest one-week draw since Sept 2016 and fifth-largest draw since the series started in 1982. WTI touched $59.93 on the headlines.

Oil flirts with key technical levels as focus turns towards OPEC+ meeting next week

  
Analysis, Crude

Oil is contesting with resistance from the 100 and 200-daily moving averages

WTI 26-06
Oil is posting some decent gains on the day with WTI up by 1.8% currently as price flirts with key technical levels in the form of the 100-day MA (red line) @ $58.67 and the 200-day MA (blue line) @ $58.96 currently.
The gains come as private survey data showed a larger-than-expected draw in crude inventories overnight and is helping to give price a near-term lift with the bigger focus being on the OPEC+ meeting set for 1-2 July next week.
Looking ahead, US-China trade talks will also play a role in helping to influence oil prices via risk sentiment in general but ultimately, it’ll be down to OPEC+ and their meeting decision to determine if any directional move can stay the course later on in the year.
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Crude oil future settle at $56.65

  
Analysis, Crude

BUp $2.89 or 5.38%

The price of crude oil settled at $56.65. That is higher by $2.89 or 5.3%.  The downing for a US drone by Iran, sent the price higher on the increased tensions in the Middle East.
BUp $2.89 or 5.38%
The high reached $57.02. The low fell to $54.11.
Technically, the pair has been able to correct above the 38.2% retracement at $56.71 (see daily chart below). A more important level technically is the 50% retracement and 100 day moving average at the $58.52 – $58.60 area.
The 200 day moving average is also in play as a key topside target at $59.16.
Moves toward those levels will test the buyers resilience.

Saudi oil minister says that will maintain supply constraints to balance oil market

  
Analysis, Crude

Comments by Saudi oil minister, Khalid Al-Falih

OPEC
  • Not seeing any slowdown of physical demand for oil
  • Oil demand is holding up despite trade disputes
The big question now is can they agree to do more in the upcoming OPEC+ meeting? As it stands, the current output cuts deal isn’t cutting it as the oversupply issue continues to linger. The worst part is that markets have basically priced in the status quo so if they announce no changes to the existing deal, don’t expect the build up of supply/inventories in the oil market to magically disappear in 2H 2019.
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