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IEA: The coronavirus crisis is causing the biggest fall in global energy investment in history

IEA says global energy investment is to plunge by 20% in 2020

In money terms, that is equivalent to roughly $400 billion. Prior to the crisis, IEA had estimated global energy investment to grow by 2% this year. The agency also notes that governments and the overall industry is set to lose well over $1 trillion in revenue as a result.

Oil

IEA: The outlook for global oil markets has ‘improved somewhat’

IEA with their latest report on the oil market

Oil
  • Demand is seen a little stronger-than-expected
  • Demand forecast pushed up by 700k bpd
  • But still remains on track for a plunge of 8.6 mil bpd (roughly 9%)
  • Oil production is on track for a ‘historic decline’ this month – lowest level in 9 years
  • This owes to OPEC+ and other international producers slashing output
  • Oil market is still in a very difficult position
A very minor lift in the oil outlook but make no mistake, the overall conditions in the market remains highly subdued considering the supply and demand imbalance caused by the coronavirus pandemic across the globe. IEA is quick to warn about that as well:
“.. but major uncertainties remain. It is unclear whether governments can resume economic activity without causing renewed outbreaks of the pandemic, and how far the OPEC+ alliance will implement the promised supply curbs.”

Weekly US oil inventories -745K vs +4000K expected

Weekly petroleum inventory data from the EIA:

us oil inventories
  • First draw since January
  • Crude -745K vs +4000K expected
  • Gasoline -3513K vs -2500K expected
  • Distillates +3511K vs +3000K expected
  • Cushing -3002K vs +2068K a week ago
This is a surprise and it’s boosted WTI back to $26.00.
Late yesterday, the private data from API showed:
  • Crude +7600K
  • Gasoline -1911K
  • Distillates +4712LK
  • Cushing -1000K
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