Archives of “Crude” category

rss

Oil climbs to post-pandemic high as Laura intensifies

  
Analysis, Crude

WTI crude breaks the August high

WTI crude breaks the August high
WTI crude closed yesterday at a post-pandemic closing high but today it has also broken the intraday high. Crude was near a session low until the latest weather observations showed Hurricane Laura as a Category 3 storm and likely to intensify further. It’s headed for the heart of US offshore oil production and refining.
I’m skeptical of a storm-inspired breakout in oil because it’s not a fundamental change in the market. The chart to watch is Brent, as it also flirts with the August high and the 200-dma.
Brent
The next major update for Laura will be at 11 am ET. It’s expected to make landfall late tonight or early tomorrow.

US storms – Oil producers on Saturday shut 13% of crude oil production ahead of Laura and Marco

  
Analysis, Crude
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Weekend news on industry response to approach of Gulf storms, posting ICYMI:

Via Reuters:
  • Producers halted 240,785 barrels per day of oil production and 119 million cubic feet per day of natural gas output before noon on Saturday, said regulator U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement.
  • Crews were evacuated from six production and four drilling rigs. Another seven drilling vessels were moved out of the storms’ paths

US weekly oil inventories -1632K vs -2850K expected

  
Analysis, Crude
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Weekly US petroleum inventory data

  • Prior was -4512K
  • Gasoline -3322K vs -1000K expected
  • Distillates +152K vs -1200K expected
  • Refinery utilization -0.1% vs +0.3% expected
  • Production unchanged at 10.7 mbpd
API data late yesterday:
  • Crude -4264K
  • Gasoline +4991K
  • Distillates -964K
Crude rose about 20 cents on the headlines to $42.79 per barrel. The headline isn’t as bullish as anticipated but the gasoline drawdown was larger.
US weekly oil inventories
The OPEC JMMC meeting is also taking place right now with Russia’s Novak stressing the need for full compliance.

IEA cuts oil demand forecasts as over gloomy outlook on global travel

  
Analysis, Crude

IEA cuts its forecast for global oil demand as air travel suffers more than expected from the ongoing virus crisis

Oil
  • 2020 global oil demand cut from 92.1 mil bpd to 91.9 mil bpd
  • 2021 global oil demand cut from 97.4 mil bpd to 97.1 mil bpd
  • Says global oil supply to fall by 7.1 mil bpd in 2020
  • Says global oil supply to rise by 1.6 mil bpd in 2021
The agency reduces oil demand estimates for almost every quarter through the end of 2021, with 2H 2020 seeing the steepest downgrades.
Adding that this is due to air travel suffering, being two-thirds lower than last year in July – a peak month due to the summer holiday, according to the agency’s estimates.

The outlook for jet fuel demand has worsened in recent weeks as the coronavirus has spread more widely. It remains unclear if the new coronavirus cases herald a second wave or are simply a regular fluctuation…

Demand uncertainty, possibility of higher output renders market re-balancing delicate.

That said, they do note that the compensation for earlier OPEC+ over-production could help to keep world supply steady this month.
But the key takeaway for oil in the bigger picture is that as long as the world doesn’t get back to normal any time soon, it increases the risks of the market staying oversupplied.

DOE crude oil inventories -4512K vs -2200K estimate

  
Analysis, Crude
#  #

Crude oil inventories

  • crude oil inventories draw of 4512K vs. draw of 2200K estimate. Last week draw 7373K
  • gasoline inventories draw of -722K vs. draw of -400K estimate. Last week saw a build of 419K
  • distillates a draw of 2322K vs. a  build estimate of 1000K. Last week saw a build of 1591K
  • Cushing build of 1336K vs a build of 532K last week
  • Crude oil is currently trading at $42.53, up $0.93 or 2.17%
The private data last night showed:
  • Crude -4400K
  • Gasoline -1310K

OPEC lowers global oil demand forecast

  
Analysis, Crude
#  #  #  #  #  #  #

The latest forecasts in OPEC’s monthly report

The latest forecasts in OPEC's monthly report
OPEC now sees 2020 world oil demand down by 9.06 mbpd compared to a drop of 8.95 mbpd in the previous monthly report.
They say the second-half outlook points to the need for continued efforts to support a rebalancing in the market through OPEC+ adjustments.
With that, they cut their forecast for OPEC crude by 400K bpd this year and 500K bpd in 2021. Part of that is due to higher non-OPEC supply.
Crude is unmoved by the news and up 59-cents to $42.20/barrel on the day.
The main worry for oil is that OPEC starts to ramp up production again. Non-OPEC producers are filling in gaps from the huge cuts and that’s not going to fly forever.

Crude oil inventories for July 31 -7.373M vs -3.335 est.

  
Analysis, Crude
#  #  #  #

Crude oil inventories for July 31

  • crude oil inventories -7.373M vs -3350M estimate. The drawdown is a little lower than the 8.587 from the private data last night
  • gasoline 0.419 million vs. -0.500M estimate
  • distillates 1.591M vs 0.986M estimate
  • Cushing 0.532M vs 1.309M last week
  • crude oil implied demand 18063 vs. 17762 last week
  • gasoline implied demand 9386.6 vs. 9250.1 last week
  • distillates implied demand 4812.7 vs. 4859.1 last week
  • US refinery utilization 0.10% vs. 0.20% estimate. Last week 1.6%
The price of crude oil after a brief dip is back trading near high levels for the day at $43.41. That’s up $1.71 or 4.12%. The high for the day reached $43.52. The 200 day moving average is currently at $43.92. The price of the September contract is not traded above its 200 day

US weekly oil inventories -10611K vs +450K expected

  
Analysis, Crude
#  #  #  #

Weekly US oil inventory data

  • Prior oil was +4892K
  • Gasoline +654K vs -2000K expected
  • Distillates +503K vs +1000K exp
  • Refinery utilization +1.6% vs +0.5% exp
  • Production 11.1 mbpd vs 11.1 prior
API data from late yesterday:
  • Crude -6829K
  • Cushing +1144K
  • Gasoline +1083K
  • Distillates +187K
Oil prices rose about 15 cents on the headlines. That’s the largest draw of the year and it’s entirely due to a 10462K draw at PADD 3, which is on the gulf coast.
In terms of oil, one thing to watch is a potential tropical cycle in the mid-atlantic. It’s on a track that could hit the gulf and Florida.
Florida
Go to top