OPEC+ is debating a gradual increase of 350K bpd in May, 350K bpd in June and 400K bpd in July, according to a report.

WTI touched the lows of the day at $58.91 shortly before this as the Saudi effort towards a two-month rollover failed and talk of a Saudis reversing their 1 mbpd voluntary cut did the rounds.

The market likes the sound of this slow increase in production but that will also depend on what Saudi Arabia does afterwards with the 1 mbpd voluntary cut.

Update: Another report is saying Saudi Arabia has proposed bringing back 250K bpd of its production in May, the same in June and the final 500 kbpd in July.

Market consensus is for another rollover of OPEC production cuts. OPEC (especially Saudi Arabia) have been cautious on the demand recovery and that will not change at this meeting:

Crude is having a bounce back day.

WTI tumbled to a six-week low yesterday in a 7% decline but it’s recovered most of the decline today, rising by $2.67 to $60.40, or 5%.

Technically, it breached the 55-day moving average yesterday for the first time since November but the strong rebound today despite a slight dip below that and the mid-Feb low is a positive sign. To generate any real kind of momentum though, or even to confirm a period of consolidation, it needs to get back above $61.90.

On the fundamental side, US weekly inventories were higher than anticipated but the small dip that caused in oil prices was quickly reversed. The ship blocking the Suez canal is backing up oil traffic but is expected to be cleared today or tomorrow.

Looking further out, the next OPEC meeting is coming quickly on March 31 and April 1. The latest dips in oil prices will likely make ministers more cautious and ensure an extension or the current policy, or only a small increase in supply in May.