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OPEC+ will press on with plans to hike production – report

  
Analysis, Crude

JMMC didn’t revise demand forecast today

OPEC+ ministers will meet virtually on Wednesday but the plan to hike production by nearly 800,000 barrels per day in May is unchanged, according to a Platts report.
This is no surprise. There had been some light talk about delays due to rising covid cases in India but demand elsewhere remains solid and growing.
The spot to watch — as always — is Saudi Arabia. A bit more than half of the planned production increase in the month is due to the reversal of Saudi voluntary cuts. If they don’t like the demand picture, they could hold off.
WTI is back to flat on the day at $62.14 after falling as low as $60.66. One-hour chart:
JMMC didn't revise demand forecast today

Oil slips further on the week, tests near-term support levels

  
Analysis, Crude

Oil falls by 1.4% on the day to $61.65

Oil H1 21-04

There aren’t much headlines involving oil so far this week but the risk retreat yesterday is one of the few things influencing price action in the commodity.
Oil tumbled from $64.00 to a low of $61.50 yesterday and is trading thereabouts again, testing the 38.2 retracement level @ $61.78 as well as its 200-hour moving average (blue line) @ $61.68. Break below that region and sellers will seize near-term control.
In the bigger picture, this looks to be a bit of a light pullback in oil after a modest rally in the past two weeks. Key support is still seen closer to $60.00 and then the 12 February low @ $57.43, so there is still some ways from a stronger technical breakout.
There has been talk of OPEC+ skipping its ministerial meeting next week but considering that they have already committed to production quotas over the next few months, there shouldn’t be much to really talk about for the time being.

Oil falls below $63 in reversal on the anniversary of negative plunge as ugly candle forms

  
Analysis, Crude

It’s been one year since oil was negative

WTI is down 88-cents today to $62.53in a disappointing reversal after hitting a one-month high of $64.38 earlier today.
We’re into the roll today so I’m looking at the June contract.
The important recent move was on April 14 when crude jumped 5% and broke out of a three-week range. The low since then is $62.53 so that’s important support for today and it’s just given way. As it stands, that puts an ugly bearish engulfing candle on the chart.
It's been one year since oil was negative
Iran touted some progress in nuclear talks today so that could be weighing but I think it’s the broader risk tone that’s undermining crude. Airline and cruise stocks are being battered today on reopening worries. There isn’t much talk about it but mediocre vaccine takeup in the US is creeping in as a story and I wonder if that begins to sting. The US government is planning a huge advertising push imminently so hopefully that helps.

OPEC+ might skip full ministerial meeting next week

  
Analysis, Crude

OPEC could just have JMMC monitoring meeting

A report says OPEC+ is discussing downgrading the April 28 scheduled ministerial meeting and only having a JMMC monitoring meeting.
OPEC has already pre-committed to the next few months. They have the option to tweak it but with oil fairly steady and inventories running off, they’re probably happy to watch and see how the market unfolds for now.
WTI is up 11-cents to $63.24 today as it continues to consolidate following last week’s break higher.
OPEC could just have JMMC monitoring meeting

Oil nears the moment of truth

  
Analysis, Crude

Oil flat today

Oil flat today
I did a video recently where I talk about the importance of watching markets that aren’t moving and aren’t grabbing headlines.
At the moment, that’s oil. WTI is flat today and looks like it will stack up another doji star on the chart. It’s normally one of the most-volatile assets but it’s been stuck in a sub-$5 range since March 18.
I’m a big time oil bull and I have been for many months but this is the kind of chart that makes people on both sides of the trade worried. A break is inevitable and the longer it stays here, the more likely it is to be a violent one.
Platts’ survey today showed OPEC+ is wavering in its compliance and that Iranian and Libyan barrels continue to increase (they’re not subject to quotas). Russia has been particularly lax in compliance.
We’ve got 2 mbpd coming back online through July and the WHO is warning about rising covid cases and deaths globally.
On the flipside, the US reopening is looking impressive in almost every way. Gasoline and travel demand is way ahead of where almost anyone thought it would be and will keep getting better. At these levels of production, global inventories are being drawn down.
So there are two trades (from my perspective):
  1. Hang onto longs and hope the trend continues
  2. Cut longs and hope to buy back cheaper
If it’s #2, the question is where to buy? The area around $52-54 looks attractive but a flush to $48 would be the real pain trade and a magnificent level to buy oil or oil companies.

Shell (world’s biggest fuel retailer) indicator suggests fuel demand recovery has remained slow

  
Analysis, Crude
#  #  #  #  #  #

An ICYMI on the still-slow recovery from coronavirus impacts across much of the globe:

  • Shell expects its fuel sales to fall or at best be broadly steady for the first quarter
  • said it saw refined oil product sales at 3.7-4.7 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first quarter compared with just under 4.8 million bpd in the last quarter of 2020. It had previously forecast sales of 4-5 million bpd.
Info via Reuters, was posted overnight ICYMI.
An ICYMI on the still-slow recovery from coronavirus impacts across much of the globe:

Crude oil inventories -3.522M vs est -1.436M

  
Analysis, Crude

Weekly crude oil inventory

  • crude oil inventories -3.522m vs -1.436m estimate
  • gasoline inventories +4.044M vs -0.221M estimate
  • distillates, +1.452K versus +0.486M estimate
  • Cushing OK crude, -0.735M
  • crude oil implied demand 17667 versus 17370 last week
  • gasoline implied demand 9573.3 versus 9431.1 last week
  • distillates implied demand 4756.6 versus 4815.9 last week
WTI crude oil futures trading down $0.31 among 0.51% of $59.02
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