Archives of “COVID-19” category

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Moscow to close all shops except groceries, pharmacies amid surge of COVID-19 cases

  
Analysis, COVID-19

Russia recorded a record number of 34,073 cases and 1,028 deaths related to COVID-19 on Wednesday

While there are many parts of the world starting to flip the page on the pandemic, not everywhere is seeing a similar recovery story unfortunately.
Despite having its own vaccine, Russia’s measly 35% vaccination rate is biting hard as we are seeing a resurgence in COVID-19 cases since September.
Russia
The big worry here is that local authorities are reporting that the spread of infections may be caused by the rise of a new variant i.e. AY.4.2 variant or “delta plus” variant. Adding that it could eventually replace the delta variant as the dominant breed.
Russian president Putin has already approved a week-long work shutdown for the start of November so this just adds to that as Moscow will close all restaurants and bars, as well as other non-essential shops starting from 28 October.

NHS Confed chief executive says number of UK COVID-19 cases in hospital seems to be rising

  
Analysis, COVID-19

Remarks by NHS Confed chief executive, Matthew Taylor

  • Intense pressure on health service is only going to get worse into winter
  • Health service is right on the edge
  • If pushed further, we will not be able to provide the level of service people need
The worrying part for the UK is that the number of COVID-19 cases are seen to be on the rise again, with experts fearing new mutations to the delta variant being the main cause.
There is still insufficient evidence to suggest if the latest strains are more transmissible or deadly but they are persisting in more cases – particularly the delta plus variant. This will be something to keep an eye out for over the next few weeks in case.
UK

Coronavirus – Australia to remain closed for four to five years

  
Analysis, COVID-19

This via an opinion piece in the Nikkei.

  • I think Australia will remain closed for four to five years. 
The basis of the opinion is that
  • Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s new four-stage plan to greater freedom from coronavirus restrictions, the ban on outbound travel for vaccinated Australians will not be lifted until 80% of the population is vaccinated.
  • Morrison believes 70% of Australians will be vaccinated by the end of the year. But reaching 80% ” is going to be a herculean task,” according to Dr. Rob Grenfell of Australia’s science agency, the CSIRO. “Yes, we could do it but it is a matter of how long it will take,” he said, meaning Australia will remain closed well into next year at a minimum.
Australia has been ‘closed’ since about the end of March last year … so three and a half years or so to go!
Link to the Nikkei piece is here if you’d like to check it out.
This from the local media here in Australia (Australian Financial Review) on the rollout progress so far:
This via an opinion piece in the Nikkei. 

US FDA set to approve a third vaccine shot for people with compromised immune systems

  
Analysis, COVID-19

This news was out earlier, just doing a bit of a round-up now.

 

  • United States Food and Drug Administration is on the verge of amending the Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for the Pfizer and the Moderna Covid-19 vaccines.
  • Will allow people with compromised immune systems to get a third dose

 

Approval likely on Thursday, cited are two unnamed sources “familiar with the plan”

UK records most covid deaths since February

  
Analysis, COVID-19

Weekly reporting quirks make it sound worse than it is

The UK reported 146 covid deaths today, which is the highest since February but it’s not as bad as it seems. There’s a weekly bump in Tuesday reporting, likely due to weekend effects. The prior two days were 37 and 39 deaths. Comparing to last Tuesday’s number of 138 gives a more accurate picture of the trend. On a seven-day average, it’s at 88. Morever, there doesn’t appear to be any sharp turn higher ongoing.
Weekly reporting quirks make it sound worse than it is
In terms of cases, the V-shaped recovery has stalled around 25K daily cases. They were at 23,510 today compared to 21,466 a week ago.
The best news is that the UK crossed 75% vaccinated today.
The market is watching cases in the US for signs of a v-shaped peak. What’s more-worrisome about the US though is that hospitalizations have tracked much higher than in the UK and in a few states are at pandemic highs.
I worry that high cases may stifle the school year in the US and elsewhere this year. That would be a headwind to economic growth.
In terms of FX, cable has been bouncing around in the last hour in a 30 pip round trip. That looks to be fixing flows rather than covid or anything else fundamental.

China says it is to test all Wuhan residents for COVID-19 amid delta variant outbreak

  
Analysis, COVID-19

China confronts its biggest spread of COVID-19 since January

Virus
The country reported 99 infections yesterday, before another seven cases were announced in Wuhan and one more in Beijing later in the day.
The latest spread is a bit concerning considering the supposedly extremely tight restrictions in place, especially in Wuhan.
The headline here is one that might border on being uncomfortable for risk assets as it could suggest that the risk of the delta variant spread is starting to have a broader impact across recovering economies all over the world.

Isreal will offer a 3rd dose of vaccine (to older citizens)

  
Analysis, COVID-19

Israel’s Prime Minister with the announcement – a coronavirus booster to people over 60 who have already been vaccinated.

  • a third dose of the Pfizer-BioNtech vaccine
Remarks from the PM:
  • “Reality proves the vaccines are safe. Reality also proves the vaccines protect from severe morbidity and death. And like the flu vaccine that needs to be renewed from time to time, it is the same in this case.”
I’m not sure what all the fuss is about re getting booster shots. Like I said yesterday, I take around 12 shots of coffee each morning. No biggie.

Australia coronavirus – locked-down state Victoria records another increase in new cases

  
Analysis, COVID-19

A post if you are following developments in Australia, where half the country (population) has been placed back under lockdown.

  • Second-largest population state Victoria has recorded 26 new cases for the preceding 24 hours. Previous couple of days were 13 (for Monday) and 22 (for Tuesday)
  • State health authorities in Melbourne say all 26 are linked to known cases
  • 2 of the 26 were circulating in the community while infectious
Numbers from other locked-down state New South Wales and South Australia will follow a little later.
Australian authorities have a low tolerance (basically zero) for virus cases, hence the lockdowns.
The naughty corner:
A post if you are following developments in Australia, where half the country (population) has been placed back under lockdown.

Australia coronavirus – Commonwealth Bank CEO says more lockdowns coming

  
Analysis, COVID-19

Head of one of Australia’s ‘big four’ banks, CBA, says have to be prepared for further lock downs in Australia in the months ahead.

Cites slow vaccination progress, going to take some time to get vast majority of the population vaccinated
  • further shut downs will slow the economy’
  • will impact the labour marekt
  • will be e bounce back for the economy once health situation is controlled
Via local media here in Oz, link for more

Here is how the vaccination rollout is progressing:

Australia is ranked last in the OECD for its vaccination rate. Someone’s gotta be last I guess. federal government incompetence and complacency helped assure the place.

How 6 countries are faring after easing covid-19 rules

  
Analysis, COVID-19

The lay of the land in the post (?) covid world

Netherlands cases
Markets have been acting like covid-19 is over for the past year but the price action this month suggests some second thoughts. As one person put it, “the basketball game looked over but covid hit a miracle 3-pointer at the buzzer to send it to overtime.”
A BBC look at six countries who eased restrictions illustrates the challenge.
1) Israel began lifting restrictions back in February and 56% of the country is fully vaccinated but in mid-June after the country was fully reopened trouble began to start. The delta variant led to climbing new cases, which hit 1118 on Friday. The country has reinstated mask mandates and introduced harsher visitor quarantines. The latest talk is that vaccine passports may be reintroduced.
2) Netherlands – the picture tells the story after restrictions were lifted at the end of June. There is a bit of good news in the past week with cases appearing to plateau, but only after curbs were reintroduced.
Mask off3) South Korea – This was the poster-child for how to handle the virus in an open democracy but after some relaxation in curbs in mid-June, it’s now facing its worst outbreak yet with around 1500 daily cases.
4) Australia – Cracks continue to form in the Australian dam. Victoria has entered its fifth lockdown and the effort to completely suppress the virus is beginning to look futile. The problem is that Australia’s success with low cases has spawned vaccine hesitancy.  With AUD/USD at the lowest since December, the market has certainly noticed.
5) USA
USA covid moronsCases are ticking up everywhere, particularly in areas with the least amount of vaccines administered. One spot that’s telling might be San Francisco. It’s the most-vaccinated city in the country but cases are rising there all the same and public health officials on Friday recommended masks in all indoor public places.
6) Sweden – This continues to offer an interesting counter-point. Cases have remained low despite re-opening and the delta variant is responsible for 60% of cases. It will be a spot to watch with first dose vaccinations above 70% and second doses at 45% and rising quickly.
Hospitals:  The good news in all these places is that serious cases remain low. To be clear, they’re rising but they’re at low and completely manageable. That needs to be monitored but so far, the vaccines appear to be doing a great job of protecting the vulnerable.
I continue to believe that the ongoing trade in markets is more about growth/value trades being reoriented in a low-conviction market but I’m open to the idea that it’s covid — something I wrote about on Friday. I think now is a good time to keep a close eye on the virus and variants, particularly these countries. Early trading this week is slightly tilted towards risk aversion once again.
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