It is very likely that the ‘fourth cycle’ of Bitcoin will never arrive.
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rssBitcoin rises 6% in bounce-back day
Bitcoin up $500
Bitcoin hit a six-month low to start the week but is bouncing back today in a nearly $500 rally to $7600.
One catalyst appears to be a report saying the Swiss government is working on laws that are more positive for blockchain.
Another theory is that recent selling was driven by the sale of Bitcoin from a theft in China and that’s dried up now so the dip-buyers are stepping in.
Technically, it’s undoubtedly oversold in the short-term but the break below the October lows is concerning. We could get a rebound to $8000 or $8500 before the selling kicks back in.
Prices when media declared bitcoin dead:
Wired: $2 Forbes: $15 Bloomberg: $93 NY Mag: $105 Slate: $131 Biz Insider: $182 WaPo: $182 USA Today: $208 NY Times: $208 FT: $290 Guardian: $318 Reuters: $327 AOL: $332 CNN: $333 Yahoo: $479 Keep this in mind when reading all headlines.
On this day in 2008: Bitcoin white paper released by Satoshi Nakamoto
Bitcoin spikes higher…
Moves up over $1000
The price of bitcoin on point basis spike higher and is trading up nearly $1000 on the day on the Coinbase exchange.
Looking at the hourly chart above, the digital current a 1st moved above the September 30 swing low at $7701 and then trumped that by moving above the 100 and 200 hour moving averages at $7808 and $7918 respectively. Sellers turned buyers and the run higher was in full motion.
What now?
Staying on the hourly chart, the September 26 high at $8659.40 and the 50% retracement of the move down from the September 20 high at $8837.79 are the next targets. That 50% retracement also is close to the swing hi from October 12 at $8826.
Taking a broader look at the daily chart, the price is also approaching its 200 day moving average at Coinbase at $8885.65.
Bitcoin falls to the lowest level since early June
5 month low for the digital current
the price of bitcoin has fallen sharply in trading today. On Coinbase, the digital currency is trading down $585 at $7535. The low for the day reached $7448.53. That took the price to the lowest level since June 5.
On the run lower the pair fell below the September and October lows (see the daily chart above). The lowest of those swing levels came in at $7701. That is now close risk for sellers.
The next target on the downside will be the June 5 low at $7427. A break of that level look toward the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the December 2018 low to the June 2019 high. That retracement level comes in at $7231.40. Fallen below that level opens up the door toward the may 17 low at $6600.
The price of bitcoin move below its 200 day moving average (green line in the chart above) on September 26. Since then, there have been 4 days when the price traded back above that moving average line (the last time was on October 11), but there have been no closes above that key moving average. The price has also remain below its 50% retracement at $8498.67 also since October 11.
The bears remain in control for the digital currency.
Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg will be grilled on Capitol Hill today on their Libra initiative. The expectations are that the Congressional leaders will not be 2 supportive of their proposal.
Bitcoin : Sometimes the reaction is the tell
The classic expression is that: “The bigger they are, the harder they fall”.
For markets, it might be “the harder they fight, the weaker they are.”
I’ve written about markets for more than a decade and often the articles that generate the most-surprisingly lively reactions are the when a market is weak and you say it’s going lower. Or write something negative about something that’s already beaten up.
It’s true that the most-ardent defenders of something are those who have suffered the most pain.
Bitcoin has been falling for a week and it’s down almost 25% in the past month and 41% since the June spike. The bulls are licking their wounds.
Today’s decline is probably just a continuation for the building bearish sentiment after the failure to break the 38.2% retracement of the Sept fall. Bitcoin is the most-technical market I know of; probably because there is a dearth of fundamental news.
However I wrote about a tangential fundamental story today as US authorities used Bitcoin to bust 338 people who used it to pay for child porn on a South Korean website that was one of the largest of its kind. It highlights that people who were using Bitcoin thought they had some level of anonymity.
Was the news responsible for today’s 3% fall in Bitcoin and a similar decline in the larger crypto space? No one knows. It’s the same in every market. You can’t get into the head of every seller.
What was different? The post generated a surprising amount of anger. The bulls tell me that everyone knows Bitcoin isn’t anonymous. Well the 338 people who are in jail now certainly didn’t know. In addition, there are still many ways to make Bitcoin anonymous and crypto is used in illicit activities (so is the dollar, I know).
Without getting deeper into the argument, I think the takeaway is the reaction. it’s the kind of reaction you often see in a market that’s weak.
I’m going to take all the anger directed at me as a sign of growing FUD. I’m not writing anything that hasn’t been said before. The vitriol is probably a barometer of the jitters in the market, and weakness.
Watch out for a break of $7700.
Bitcoin down a few hundred dollars early Monday
A quick drop of a few hundred dollars for the crypto
Developments in Facebook’s Libra are a bit of a weight for crypto at present. the latest I’ve seen (Friday) is eBay , Stripe, and Mastercard all announced they were leaving the Libra Association.
Crypto news – Visa, Mastercard, reconsider involvement in Facebook’s Libra network
The Wall Street Journal report second thoughts from big payment companies on the cryptocurrency.
- Visa, Mastercard and other key financial partners that signed on to help build and maintain the Libra payments network are reconsidering their involvement following backlash from U.S. and European government officials, according to people familiar with the matter.
- Wary of attracting regulatory scrutiny, executives of some of Libra’s backers have declined Facebook’s requests to publicly support the project, the people said.
- Their reluctance has Facebook scrambling to keep Libra on track.
WSJ is gated, but here is the link if you can access it
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Meanwhile, BTC price chart update:
Here’s a view that Bitcoin is becoming a safe haven asset
The view is from a crypto promoter. Not that there is anything wrong with that but it pays to be aware of the potential of book talk when viewing such items.
Video is from Bloomberg, can be found here if you are interested.
Meanwhile, BTC price update. Daily candle.
