- The majority of traders spend enormous amounts of time and money searching for ways to increase their accuracy, failing to realize that they could dramatically increase their bottom line by focusing the same amount of energy on increasing their average risk-reward ratio.
- A trader must be willing to accept the more volatile equity curves that a low accuracy/high risk reward trading model delivers, but the added profitability at the end of each quarter should more than offset any mental stress.
- As is often the case in this perverse business, the biggest edges and most dramatic profitability come from the low accuracy/high risk-to-reward trading strategies.
- Develop edges built around the market open, around the market close, around seasonal tendencies, and the relationship of stocks in similar sectors.
- Minimum Profit Objective (i.e. minimum reward-to-risk ratio) = (100 – Win Rate) / (Win Rate). The statistical break even win rate for a 2:1 trading strategy lies near 34%.
Archives of “February 16, 2022” day
rssEuropean equity close: Losses trimmed late in a day of choppy trading
- UK FTSE 100 -0.1%
- German DAX -0.2%
- French CAC -0.2%
- Italy MIB flat
- Spain IBEX +0.2%
We tried the upside early and downside late today. The lows came about an hour before the close but here was a decent late comeback to finish only narrowly lower.
Russian economy fitted into Europe
US 30y mortgages 👇 Our thoughts and prayers are with those who have recently bought property with little equity, above asking price.
#Crypto
Ukraine defence minister says latest threat assessments do not contain anything unexpected
Reznikov says that the latest threat assessments are consistent with earlier views and that they do not contain anything unexpected. I guess that is code for there isn’t anything untoward from Russia for the time being but that doesn’t mean that the threat has receded or subsided completely. We’ll see how things go in the day(s) ahead to be certain.
But with every passing hour where nothing is really happening, that is one step closer for markets and risk assets to be more cheerful.
US Consumer Confidence and S&P 500 have diverged. The problem: 50% of US people surveyed in Feb said that they expect their standard of living to go down b/c of inflation. Fed has to fight these expectations & can no longer support stock markets. End of the Fed put?
Three weeks of massive accumulation in the S&P 500.
US major indices snap a three day losing streak
The major US stock indices snapped a three day losing streak. The gains were led by the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000. The Dow 30 lagged.
The snapshot of the closing levels shows:
- Dow industrial average +422.67 points or 1.22% at 34988.85
- S&P index up 69.4 points or 1.58% at 4471.06
- NASDAQ index up 348.85 points or 2.53% at 14139.77
- Russell 2000 up 55.68 points or 2.76% at 2076.46
Technical highlights:
- The S&P index closed above its 200 day moving average at 4454.62 (see green line in the chart below).
- The NASDAQ index closed back above its 100 hour moving average at 14037.83
- Dow industrial average tested its 100 hour moving average at 35038.77 but is closing below that level at 34992.95
- Russell 2000 based against its lower 100 hour moving average at 2020.58 before surging to the upside in cracking above its 200 hour moving average at 2067.62. The index is closing above its 200 hour moving average for the first time since early January.
Thought For A Day
