ECB and BOE policy meetings the highlight of European trading

  
Analysis, Economy

The dollar is keeping steadier so far on the day, holding its ground after a more sluggish week in general. Equities continue to perform well although there is a bit of a drag in tech futures after Facebook/Meta’s disappointing earnings. But overall sentiment is still holding up with Dow futures keeping flattish thus far.

Treasury yields seem like they’ve met a bit of a stall with 2-year yields holding below 1.20% and 10-year yields below 1.90%. We’ll have to see how things develop in the economy and inflation debate before finding any further conviction it seems.

Looking ahead today, the ECB and BOE are the two key spots to watch in European trading.

I don’t expect much from the former, despite a record consumer inflation reading to start the new year. The ECB is likely to continue to brush that aside until March but make no mistake, the pressure is on. The decision and statement today will be rather inconsequential for the most part (perhaps watch for the mention on inflation) with Lagarde’s press conference the main attraction.

As for the BOE, a 25 bps rate hike is the baseline expectation as UK inflation runs rampant in recent months. I would argue that policymakers will play it slow and not foreshadow an aggressive tightening cycle – even if it may be what they need to go with. That could set up a bit of a disappointment for the pound. However, I wouldn’t discount them trying to overcompensate for being “behind the curve”. So, there are upside risks involved too.

0815 GMT – Spain January services, composite PMI
0845 GMT – Italy January services, composite PMI
0850 GMT – France January final services, composite PMI
0855 GMT – Germany January final services, composite PMI
0900 GMT – Eurozone January final services, composite PMI
0930 GMT – UK January final services, composite PMI
1000 GMT – Eurozone December PPI figures
1200 GMT – BOE announces February monetary policy decision
1230 GMT – US January Challenger job cuts, layoffs
1245 GMT – ECB announces February monetary policy decision

BOE governor Bailey’s presser will come at 1230 GMT while ECB president Lagarde’s presser will come at 1330 GMT.

That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.

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