Archives of “May 3, 2021” day

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Moody’s economic growth forecasts for the US: real GDP growth 2021 of nearly 7%

  
  Analysis

In a brief summary of Moddy’s analysis:

  • We are revising up our outlook for real GDP growth this year to nearly 7% and to over 5% next year. If we are right, and there’s good reasons to believe we will be, this will be the strongest two years of growth since 1950-1951 at the height of the post-World War II economic boom.
On inflation and the Fed:
  • Inflation is picking up. 
  • Spiking commodity and industrial prices should also settle down later this year as the supply-side of those markets rebound and scrambled supply chains are straightened out. Having said this, inflation is unlikely to moderate as much as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell seems to be suggesting
  • labor markets remain tight and wage growth strong
  • Inflation expectations remain anchored, which assuages concerns that inflation will become undesirably high, but inflation appears set to accelerate more quickly than the Fed seems to think.
The median forecast of the federal funds rate by members of the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee puts the first rate hike after 2023. 
  • we expect them to accelerate their plans for the first rate hike as it becomes clear that inflation will be higher much sooner than they anticipate. Indeed, we expect Powell to begin preparing financial markets for a tapering of the Fed’s quantitative easing (bond-buying) program once it is certain the U.S. has achieved herd immunity, which we anticipate by the late July meeting of the FOMC. The actual tapering of QE will begin with the committee’s January 2022. 

South Korea lifts its ban on short-selling after 14 months

  
  Analysis
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Short selling has been banned in South Korea since March 2020

  • It was banned in an effort to reduce market volatility during the pandemic and recovery
Seoul’s Financial Services Commission said on Sunday that the ban on short selling on two-hundred large-cap firms listed on the benchmark KOSPI will be lifted.
  • also applies to 150 firms listed on the secondary-KOSDAQ
Info via SK media, link

ICYMI – China’s Q1 gold consumption up 93.9% y/y

  
Analysis, Gold / Silver

China Gold Association with the data published on Friday.

  • China Q1 gold consumption up 93.9% y/y
  • Output fell 9.92% y/y
  • First quarter demand reverted to pre-pandemic level
Q1 2021 was a huge bounce back from the pandemic impacted Q1 of 2020, do bear that in mind when reading the above.
The data is via a Reuters report and there is a little more here at the link.
Gold is having a good session in Asia to open the week:
China Gold Association with the data published on Friday.

Weekend – Iran says US sanctions on oil, banks expected to be lifted. US says No.

  
Analysis, Politics

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said a deal was close and section on the country would soon be lifted.

Later, CNN with the US denial:
  • White House officials on Sunday denied Iranian state media reports that the US has reached an agreement with Iran to lift economic sanctions against the country, saying that there is still much to be negotiated over the coming weeks.
  • “There is no deal now,” national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Sunday on ABC News’ “This Week,” adding that “there’s still fair distance to travel to close the remaining gaps.”

Ethereum has hit a fresh record high, follows news of a potential digital bond sale on the ethereum blockchain

  
  Analysis

Reuters reports that the European Investment Bank (EIB) could launch a digital bond sale on the ethereum blockchain network.

Reports elsewhere (from Friday, April 30) that the bank has launched a digital bond issuance
  • on a blockchain platform in collaboration with Goldman Sachs, Santander and Societe Generale and in a partnership with Banque de France
Reuters reports that the European Investment Bank (EIB) could launch a digital bond sale on the ethereum blockchain network.
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