Archives of “January 2021” month

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Most countries today have failed, all but ensuring that COVID-19 will remain with us over 2021

  
Analysis, COVID-19

Here’s a piece from Market Watch that is a sobering take on the wishes for a Happy New Year on emergence from the pandemic.

Its from William Haseltine, a past professor at Harvard Medical School and Harvard School of Public Health and founder of its Division of Biochemical Pharmacology and Division of Human Retrovirology.
Obviously, his expertise is not in the same league as a failed NY property developer but successful reality TV star, but its worth checking out.
  • Despite its virulence, many simply assume that the pandemic will end sometime in 2021. But such hopes are misplaced. Controlling an epidemic involves four fundamental components: leadership, governance, social solidarity, and a medical tool kit. Most countries today have failed on the first three, all but ensuring that COVID-19 will remain with us over the next year.
Here's a piece from Market Watch that is a sobering take on the wishes for a Happy New Year on emergence from the pandemic. 

The economic calendar on Tuesday

  
  Analysis

Add the OPEC decision into the mix

Georgia runoff
The trading year started off with some unexpected drama as equities were slammed and early weakness in the US dollar evaporated.
The day ahead will feature even more for market participants to think about, especially with the OPEC meeting slated for a second day. Given that the meeting won’t start until 330 pm in Vienna, it’s sure to bleed into New York trade.
On the formal calendar, we get the ISM December manufacturing survey. The consensus is 56.7, down from 57.5 but given the strong numbers from today’s Markit survey, I’ll take the upside — especially on prices paid.
We also hear from the Fed’s Williams at 2045 GMT as he participates on a panel.
The main event though will be the Georgia runoff. Don’t expect any results until late in the day and it may be a few days before the results are clear. Three million votes have already been cast and that’s a large turnout for a runoff but it also means the counting will take more than a week. In the general election, it looked like Trump had won early but as the mail-in votes were tallied, Biden took the state.
I expect a quicker result this time, if only because you can model out the results against what we saw in the general election. If the Democratic Senators are outperforming by 3-4 percentage points, then they have it. If not, it’s the status quo.

UK reports record 58,784 new covid cases vs 55,157 yesterday

  
Analysis, COVID-19

US cases remain high but pace of growth slows

US cases remain high but pace of growth slows
This is another record in UK cases but it’s only marginally higher than two days ago.
Can we take any comfort in the plateauing of cases in the past week? I don’t because there’s usually a weekend effect on Mondays and we’ve got a record anyway. Given all the holiday mingling and lagged effects of symptoms, it’s tough to see any improvement in the near term, even with lockdowns.
At the present case, one in every 1200 people in the UK is being diagnosed positive every day.

Iraq rumours do the rounds

  
  Analysis

What’s the story?

There is chatter about attack or an attack on US forces in Iraq yesterday but I think this is a case of broken telephone.
An Al-Arabiya correspondent reported that an international coalition convoy had been targeted on Samarra road, north of Baghdad.
Somehow that morphed into vague talk of heavy casualties. I don’t think it’s a real risk for the broader market and the crude market certainly isn’t paying it any mind as the OPEC meeting continues and oil prices fall.

US dollar battles back in early New York trade

  
Analysis, Forex

The dollar started the year off poorly

Dollar weakness is a consensus trade in 2021 as the trend continues. Oftentimes the consensus is wrong but it wasn’t on the dollar — at least in the first few hours of trading.
The dollar is still near the bottom of the major currency market today (ahead of only GBP) but it’s recouped some losses in the past few hours. Some of that comes with Treasury yields ticking higher.
The first big dollar test will be if US 10s rise above 1%. A break of that is a sure thing if Democrats win both seats in tomorrow’s election.
The dollar started the year off poorly

OPEC haggling keeps the oil market on edge Mon 4 Jan 2021 13:37:07 GMT

  
Analysis, Crude

Crude unchanged after earlier jump

Crude unchanged after earlier jump
Brent hit $53.33 and WTI rose to $49.83 earlier but both have given back about $1.40 and are unchanged on the day.
OPEC+ is meeting today to decide whether to stick with the plan of returning another 500,000 barrels per day of production to the market in light of fresh lockdowns and the virus surge.
One report, citing a  source close to the talks said just before today’s meeting that Russia and UAE are insisting on the 500 thousand bpd increase in production but Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Algeria are pushing to leave production unchanged.
The baseline in the market is for an increase but another report says there is “lots of chatter” about keeping current production levels.
In the bigger picture, 26 of the 29 commodities in the CRB index are higher today with coffee, aluminum and nickel as the only laggards. On top are silver and natural gas.
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