Archives of “January 2021” month

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CFTC Commitments of Traders: Dollar remains short across the board

  
  Analysis

Weekly forex futures positioning data from the CFTC for the week ending Tuesday, January 26

  • EUR long 163K vs 163K long last week. Unchanged
  • GBP long 8K vs 14K long last week. Longs trimmed by 6K
  • JPY long 45K vs 50K long last week. Longs trimmed by a 5K
  • CHF long 10K vs 9K long last week. Longs increased by 1K
  • AUD long 1K vs 5K long last week. Longs trimmed by 4K
  • NZD long 15K vs 16K long last week. Longs trimmed by 1K
  • CAD long 14K vs 10K long last week. Longs increase by 4K

Overall there were small changes in the net currency positions. However the dollar range short/the currencies long across the board.

Below is a chart of the net long position of the EUR. The net position has been relatively stable over the last few months.
EUR long position

Vix volatility index on pace for the biggest weekly surge since June

  
  Analysis

Up over 60% since Wednesday

Up over 60% since Wednesday
The Vix or volatility index is trading up at 33.37 after reaching a high of 37.51 earlier in the day. The index has increased some 65% since Wednesday alone.
As volatility increases, so too does the Vix index. The volatility in the meme stocks has now rotated into the larger cap stocks with the large moved to the downside today.   A slew of earnings this week also added to the volatility. Him
The Vix index has stayed within a range of about 19.5 to 44.7 since April last year. In March while stocks were being sold off rapidly on the back of the Covid transmission spread, the index spiked up at 85.47.
Although risks remain high from Covid, and today’s selling was helped by the Pfizer CEO saying the there was a “high possibility future variant will elude vaccines “, the fear and uncertainty from Covid is not at those early transmission levels.  As a result there should be a limit to the upside.

The earnings calendar for next week includes Amazon, Alphabet, PayPal, Chipotle

  
Analysis, US Market

Another big week for earnings next week

Next week is another big earnings week. This week’s results, although mostly better than expectations, saw investor sell into the bounces (generally speaking).

So what reaction will the results next week bring?
Below is a list of the major releases:
Monday
  • Warner music group
  • NXP
Tuesday
  • UPS
  • Pfizer
  • Alphabet
  • Chipotle
  • Amazon
Wednesday
  • Humana
  • Qualcomm
  • PayPal
  • eBay
  • Sony
Thursday
  • Merck
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb
  • Clorox Company
  • Activision Blizzard
  • Ford
Friday
  • Regeneron
  • Sanofi
  • Estée Lauder
  • Cardinal Health

US Major indices close down -2% on the day

  
Analysis, US Market

Dow industrial average down -2.03%.

All 3 of the major indices closed down around 2% on the day.

  • The Dow, S&P, NASDAQ each had their worst week since October.
  • The indices had there worst month since October.
  • The NASDAQ post the 3rd straight monthly gain.
  • The Dow and S&P closed down for the 1st month of the trading year
the final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index -73.17 points or -1.93% at 3714.21. The high price reached 3778.05. The low price extended to 3694.12
  • NASDAQ index fell -266.46 points or -2.0% at 13070.65. The high price reached 13322 while the low extended to 12985.05
  • Dow industrial average fell -622.78 points or -2.04% to 29980.56. The high price reached 30553.91. The low price extended to 29856.30.
For the week:
  • S&P index fell -3.31%
  • NASDAQ index fell -3.49%
  • Dow industrial average fell -3.26%
For the month:
  • S&P index fell -1.11%
  • NASDAQ index gained 1.42%
  • Dow industrial average fell -2.04%

White House: US China trade deal among issues under review

  
  Analysis

White House responding to trade and security

The White House is out with a couple statements regarding trade and security and the transition from the Trump presidency. They say
  • US-China trade deal among issues under review in broad review of US – China policy
  • everything the Trump administration put in place in terms of national security is also under review
I would imagine that this is standard operating procedures.
With regard to the stock market volatility, the White House is saying that they will defer to US SEC when it comes to the volatility
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